Politics: National

Remember, remember the Sixth of January! For the first time since the foolish War of 1812, the U.S. Capitol was invaded. In this case, the attackers were not the redcoats but American citizens, whipped up by the president to overturn certifying the Electoral College that he lost.

Rogue readers have made some excellent points on the open thread which I put up this past week. I urge you to read them.

We have a mob president who not only specifically incited the putsch but then declined to respond to lawmakers' desperate pleas for help inside the besieged Capitol. These are not debatable points but objective facts. So is the fact that the FBI warned of a "war" planned to halt certification of the election.

Hitler used a beer hall. Trump used social media.

Arizona played a big role, from the Barbarian King Jake Angeli in his horned cap, as part of the mob to the likes of U.S. Reps. Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar helping organize the rally that led to insurrection. The event has a body count: Five dead, along with the members of Congress huddled in fear, then evacuated — House members were shut up in a room where some Republicans refuse to wear masks and at least one (a Democrat) getting COVID.

Proud Boys march in front of the Supreme Court in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday morning. Soon a rightwing mob, incited by Donald Trump, stormed the U.S. Capitol. (Elvert Barnes photo).…

I use quotation marks because this term encompasses many distinct — sometimes overlapping — conditions. Its continued use makes it difficult to seriously explore this phenomenon, much less propose constructive actions ("solutions" aren't possible). Worse, it makes the situation appear simple: All they need are homes. In fact, it is among the most complex and intractable of social problems.

In the Depression, many people who lost their homes and farms were consigned to shantytowns outside cities ("Hoovervilles") or long trips to uncertain new places, immortalized by Steinbeck's Grapes of Wrath. They were not welcome many places, including Phoenix, which couldn't even care for its own, much less provide for "gas moochers." But this was a temporary emergency, eased by the New Deal and cured entirely by the demand for jobs in the ramp-up to World War II. Interestingly, crime was very low during the Great Depression.

At the other end of the spectrum were hoboes, vagrants, and bums riding the rails, living off the land and handouts, sometimes settling in the skid rows of cities. In Phoenix, this district was called the Deuce. They had cheap single-room-occupancy (SRO) hotel rooms, cheap grocery stores, cheap bars. This population was almost exclusively male. Vagrancy laws were strictly enforced. They could find temporary work in such places as the Phoenix warehouse district's produce sheds.

Carl Muecke illustration Joe Biden appears to have a commanding lead in the polls. This gives me little comfort. Hillary Clinton held what appeared to be a similar unstoppable advantage…

By comparison, 1861 seemed so easy.

The nation was neatly divided sectionally and politically, with compromises over expansion of slavery run out. No large standing army existed. Most Americans saw themselves first as residents of their sovereign states, with the United States of America often taking a plural verb. No wonder Robert E. Lee turned down Lincoln's offer of top command of the Union armies — his "country," Virginia, had seceded.

The break up wasn't that neat. Outside of the fire-breathing secessionists in South Carolina and the Deep South, the decision to leave the Union was agonizing for most states. Virginia lost its northwestern counties which became a state. North Carolina was always ambivalent. Sam Houston opposed it eloquently in Texas. The future Stonewall Jackson, then professor Thomas J. Jackson at Virginia Military Institute, was against it and prayed it would not come. But it did.

We've been in a Cold Civil War for some time — I'd place the start date as the Supreme Court unconstitutionally giving the presidency to George W. Bush in 2000. But as with the hot Civil War, the embers had been crackling for decades. This might be the most important election in American history. But the presidential race should not be this close, given Trump's abundant corruption, incompetence, lies, and treason. We may look back and see that 2016 was our last chance.

I bring this up because…what happens if Biden loses? Or Trump steals the election. Or is defeated and refuses to leave office? These have been the subject of many articles. Hillary Clinton, who won the popular vote by 3 million in 2016 but was deprived of the Electoral College by 80,000 votes in three states, said "Joe Biden should not concede under any circumstances because I think this is going to drag out…"

Illustration by Carl Muecke.

Enough Phoenix history and historical photo galleries for awhile. Time to write about politics, with as much honesty as keeping myself viable allows. I promise you reality based commentary. So consider yourself given a trigger warning.

The Democratic National Convention was a hit, at least with Democrats, and contained many high notes, especially President Obama's speech and the acceptance address of Joe Biden.

We are in a moment of existential peril, both for our form of self-government and the planet. The Biden-Harris ticket is the answer, particularly if Democrats win the Senate, too. Trump, who won the Electoral College thanks to a mere 80,000 votes in three Midwestern states, has shown himself worse than unqualified for the job. He is a menace. As Obama said in his speech:

Donald Trump hasn't grown into the job because he can't. And the consequences of that failure are severe. 170,000 Americans dead. Millions of jobs gone while those at the top take in more than ever. Our worst impulses unleashed, our proud reputation around the world badly diminished, and our democratic institutions threatened like never before.

And yet, according to FiveThirtyEight, nearly 42% of poll respondents approve of him. This is no-doubt low because of a new version of the "Bradley Effect," where many Trump supporters lie to pollsters for fear of being labeled a racist, white supremacist, etc. He gets credit for a good pre-COVID economy even though his jobs and growth numbers trail the last three years of Obama.

How is this possible? How could anyone who has been paying attention to the lies, corruption, incompetence, and treason of the past three-and-a-half years support this man?

I'm not sure what I can add to the stories we've had on the Front Page. But I'll tell you what I know.

Writing from Seattle, I'm in one of the hotspots of coronavirus in the United States. As of today, 420 people are infected in King County, with 47 deaths. More will surely follow, but that's not the whole story. No infections or deaths have come from downtown or Belltown, where I live. The epicenter is an assisted-living center in tony Kirkland on the snooty Eastside across Lake Washington. So people should be cautious about making assumptions.

Gov. Jay Inslee has banned gatherings of more than 50 people and ordered all restaurants and bars shut down. More than 253,500 Washingtonians work in food service and drinking establishments. This "one-note-on-climate-change" presidential candidate who dropped out early has shown far more leadership on the pandemic than the current occupant of the White House.

Even so, we lack so much knowledge about the situation, especially because of the lack of test kits. South Korea has fast, free drive-through testing. The United States, "Great Again," feels like the Third World. We can't tell what is prudent and what is wild overreaction, what is irrational panic. Of course, many Republicans, even friends of mine, deny coronavirus is a problem at all. It's all a conspiracy to take down Dear Leader. Never mind lockdowns in Italy, Spain, and France. Never mind the British study that predicted 2.2 million deaths in the United States without vigorous action.

Remember, 80,000 voters in three Midwestern states gave an Electoral College victory to the most unqualified and dangerous man in American history. For three years, we were mostly lucky (not Puerto Rico in Hurricane Maria) with no immediate crisis demanding presidential leadership. Now our luck has run out.

Someone tweeted: "I think it's okay to be a little resentful at Trump voters for ultimately murdering us."

Carl Muecke illustration

Much has changed since late September, when 19 Democrats were running for president. Now, it's a Biden-Sanders contest. Despite the narrative that the former vice president was a dead candidate walking, he scored a massive win on Super Tuesday. This is a reminder that Twitter world is not the real world. Much can still change: Thirty-eight primaries remain and 62% of pledged delegates are still unwon.

Still, based on today's state of play and barring a massive setback for the frontrunner, Joe Biden will be the nominee.

Some friends of the blog asked me to assess the situation. I have a hard time topping Andrew Sullivan's essay, which was on Rogue's Front Page over the weekend. Among his many insights:

This was not the GOP in 2016 — unable to winnow the field and coalesce behind a single opponent to Trump, and then staggering backward into submission. This is the Democrats in 2020, finally a party capable of operating with some institutional authority. Here’s a headline you don’t often see: “Democrats Not in Disarray!”

So I'll try to bat cleanup and go in a few other directions.