Posted inPhoenix

Arizona unemployment: Grim reality

Here's a reality based report that won't be discussed by the local viziers of boosterism in Phoenix, much less the editorial pages of the Arizona Republic. The job losses from the recession that began in 2007 are much worse in Arizona than the 10 previous major recessions since the end of World War II.

The Minneapolis Fed crunched data nationally and for 50 states to come up with this fascinating interactive presentation. Although Arizona's unemployment appears to be relatively low compared to some states — for reasons I've previously explored — this comprehensive report puts all the wishful thinking and ideological twisty games to bed. No other downturn comes even close. The "legendary" 1991 recession? Beanbag compared with this labor market bloodbath. The truly nasty 1973 recession? Not even close.

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Posted inPhoenix

In the kill zone

We don't know the details yet. But I imagine Doug Georgianni as another struggling, underpaid guy trying to find that illusive Arizona dream. Now he's dead, a young 51. Three months ago he took a job servicing the speed cameras on Phoenix freeways. Sunday night, while parked on the Loop 101 near 7th Ave. in a marked Department of Public Safety photo enforcement van, Georgianni was shot multiple times. The suspect, since arrested, is a white male (of course) driving a Chevy Suburban (of course).

I never completely understood the loud controversy over speed and red-light cameras. Metro Phoenix has a horrendous problem of major traffic violators, fatal and often spectacular wrecks and pedestrian killings, many hit-and-runs. Meanwhile, the religion of tax cuts and Arizona's unwillingness to fund its public sector to keep up with population growth mean there aren't enough traffic officers. The problem is made worse, of course, by sprawl, huge freeways and eight-lane "city streets," plus a population driving giant vehicles they can't really control on streets with increasing numbers of pedestrians. Even the former Catholic bishop came to grief this way, and in his character-revealing response of driving away from the victim like so many other 'Zonies had done.

Yet to the Kookocracy the speed cameras were the worst kind of "big brother." It's funny, they didn't have a problem with their party's implementation of torture and rendition as American policy, or with the tactics of "America's toughest sheriff." I wonder if any of them — from the pols to the talk-radio "hosts" — now regret the years they have spent fighting the cameras with the usual intemperate language?

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Posted inPhoenix

The conscience of the Kookocracy?

They wish they knew how to quit me. Even though it's been two years since I wrote a column for the Arizona Republic, I keep popping up on various Web sites as the devil that's missed by the Kookocracy. After all, who can they now denounce as a SOCIALIST!! — Clay Thompson? The pretty-in-pink Moms Like Me page? Anyway, this was brought home again in a story last week about a conference on the flatlined-in-a-body-bag Arizona economy.

One commenter generously wrote: "Jon Talton preached this for nearly a decade, yet no one believed him.
In fact, the GOP-led Legislature and the Real Estate Industrial Complex
put a lot of pressure on The Arizona Republic to silence him, and in
the end, Talton was run out of town. Perhaps if those idiots had
actually paid attention to what Talton had to say, then the state
wouldn't be in this mess. And legislators wouldn't have to solicit
advice from ordinary Arizonans, as they did just last week. Fools." This was followed by — I am not making this up: "You mean John Talton the corporate socialist shill?" Etc. Spelling has never been their thing.

Back to this big summit, convened by the Greater Phoenix Economic Council. Chairman Michael Bidwill "said that…the state relies too much on retail and contracting revenues." Yes, he of the Arizona Cardinals whose taxpayer-funded stadium in the cotton field was meant to be a magnet for contracting and retail. Glendale Mayor Elaine Scruggs said, "It's overwhelming. It's really overwhelming when you look at all the areas where we are deficient." Duh, ace, as we said in fifth grade. You get the picture. Deeply unserious — another summit to nowhere. But rather than go back to discuss the real problems and solutions, which you can find here, I want to encourage the Kookocracy to use Teabag Day to redouble their efforts.

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Posted inUncategorized

ASU’s dreams dashed

When I saw this morning's headline in the Arizona Republic, "ASU's Dreams Dashed," I didn't realize it was just a sports story. Arizona State University was the prime example of a recent New York Times story headlined, "State Colleges Also Face Cutbacks in Ambitions." Reporting on the hundreds of layoffs and scores of closed programs, among other draconian austerity measures, the Times wrote:

…this year, Mr. Crow’s plans have crashed into new budget realities,
raising questions about how many public research universities the
nation needs and whether universities like Arizona State, in their
drive to become prominent research institutions, have lost focus on
their public mission to provide solid undergraduate education for state
residents.

"Mr. Crow," of course, is Michael Crow, who arrived as ASU's president in 2002 promising "the new American university." When he was riding high, I talked to an eminent Arizonan, a huge supporter of higher ed, who had just spent some time with Crow. "He's brilliant…visionary," this person said. "And he's a con man." On my visit to Phoenix last month, a major civic leader said flatly: "I think Crow's house of cards will collapse soon."

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Posted inPhoenix

Arizona’s mysterious jobless rate

Why is Arizona's unemployment rate relatively low? The national rate in February was 8.1 percent, while Arizona's rate was 7.4 percent. This was 2.9 percentage points higher than in the same month last year, but well below California's 4.3 jump (to 10.5 percent) or Washington's 3.7 increase (to 8.4 percent).

This was the question that the Arizona Republic political columnist Robert Robb claimed to set out to answer in a recent column. I tend not to pay attention to Robb because he pretty much always says the same thing: status quo good, government bad, etc. Robb, the only editorial columnist for the paper, is not a journalist and came out of the "Goldwater" Institute and right-wing/growth machine political world. So one knows where he's coming from.

Not surprisingly, he uses this question to set up a straw-man. He disputes the notion that Arizona is too dependent on real estate, asserts that the state has "a fundamentally solid underlying economy," and deplores "various advocates of various dubious schemes to 'diversify' Arizona's economy." (A graceful stylist, no). So that's it. Move along. Nothing to see here.

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Posted inPhoenix

How Arizona can feel good

Random observations from my trip to Arizona:

'Zonies, particularly Phoenicians and the Real Estate Industrial Complex, are always after cheap praise. "Make the community feel good about itself," as the diktat from the Arizona Republic to its "information center" goes. This is usually a license for boosterish fraud and an extended holiday from reality. Real accomplishment must be earned. I saw some of that on display.

    * This past weekend's inaugural Tucson Festival of Books was a wonder. Sponsored by the Arizona Daily Star (what a concept: a newspaper supporting reading and printed media) and the University of Arizona, it was the first big-time book festival to happen in the state. The crowds were large and enthusiastic (people even came to see me speak and sign books). Big-name authors came from around the country. What was most amazing was the cohesive community support behind the event, from the array of corporate and philanthropic sponsors to the army of smiling volunteers. Tucson took its best-practices from the world-class Los Angeles Times Festival of Books and gave the state something magical. It's also important: a community push to improve literacy in a county where one out of five residents is functionally illiterate. Eat your heart out Phoenix.

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Posted inPhoenix

Arizona: Deeper into the Kook zone

The Kookocracy continues not to disappoint. Their draconian cutbacks mean that new state archives building will be closed less than two weeks after being dedicated. State parks have, or are on the way to being, closed — with no provisions being made to protect these priceless sites from looters. Meanwhile, the Kooks are rushing a bill through the Legislature that would bar Arizona from participating in the Western Climate Initiative — a mild but promising effort by states to begin curbing greenhouse gases.

This is what you get when you don't vote. This is what you get when you have an ineffective opposition party, which made few noticeable gains in local and legislative offices during the reign of Saint Janet. This is what you get when the party of Lincoln, TR, Eisenhower — even of Coolidge, Hoover, Reagan and George H.W. Bush is taken over by a nihilistic bunch of extremists. They want a radical individualistic law of the jungle, where the strong rule and profit, and devil (or Arpaio) take the hindmost.

And this is only the tip of the iceberg — the press in the state has been suffering its own draconian cutbacks, and fear of crossing the right-wing thugs by reporting on their activities.

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Posted inPolitics: National

Legalize drugs?

Seattle Police Chief Gil Kerlikowske has been selected as the nation's next "drug czar." His predecessor, Norm Stamper, argues for legalization, saying that the "war against drugs" has not only failed, but inflicted misery on people and undermined the effectiveness of law enforcement. (Watch an interview here). The divergence shows a blue divide little known to civilians, with a growing number of police officers who want partial or full decriminalization of drugs. I certainly hear it from the cops who help me in the research for my mysteries. There's an organization, Law Enforcement Against Prohibition (LEAP), dedicated to the cause.

Decriminalization is one of the last issues where you'll find both liberal and conservative supporters. For example, National Review, which at least once represented an intellectual brand of conservatism, urged legalization years ago. NR said "the drug war is lost." Chief Stamper put it this way:

It's not a stretch to conclude that our Draconian approach to drug
use is the most injurious domestic policy since slavery. Want to cut
back on prison overcrowding and save a bundle on the construction of
new facilities? Open the doors, let the nonviolent drug offenders go.
The huge increases in federal and state prison populations during the
1980s and '90s (from 139 per 100,000 residents in 1980 to 482 per
100,000 in 2003) were mainly for drug convictions. In 1980, 580,900
Americans were arrested on drug charges. By 2003, that figure had
ballooned to 1,678,200. We're making more arrests for drug offenses
than for murder, manslaughter, forcible rape and aggravated assault
combined. Feel safer?

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Posted inPhoenix

More beer saves Arizona economy

Today's installment of the Phoenix Laff Riot begins with Tuesday's truly pathetic story in the Arizona Republic headlined "Big game proves a winner for state economy." Ordered up, no doubt, by the "say something positive about the community" bosses, here's the gist:

Consumers who had been watching their pennies splurged in
celebration of the Arizona Cardinals in the Super Bowl, giving the
state's ailing economy an unexpected shot in the arm. Fans bought hats, T-shirts, televisions, snack trays and beer. They
partied at sports bars and in homes around the state, cheering on the
Cardinals.

Let's apply a little critical thinking not allowed in news meetings. The story has no data to back up this claim. And even if people spent more on beer and chips for the game, it simply changes the shape of the water balloon. In other words, that consumer spending was diverted from other areas; the Big Game didn't represent an increase in purchasing power or living standards. That would require, oh, a diverse economy with well-paid jobs and an educated workforce. In any event, even Super Bowl economic impact reports by real economists are always suspect, requiring a skepticism that was once required of journalists.

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Posted inPhoenix

Kookocracy lies about university cuts

Fact and fiction about Arizona university funding, per Michael Crow (and I agree):

Based
on some of the responses I’ve received recently regarding the state
budget proposal, I wanted to forward a few key facts to counter the
lingering inaccuracies and misperceptions I continue to encounter. The
information below provides important clarification related to pending
budget concerns and the magnitude of the challenges ASU is facing.


Fiction: The cut to ASU in the proposed legislative budget
is a small fraction (between 4 and 12 percent) of the university’s
overall budget.

Fact: The actual percentages are 35 percent of the
2009 state General Fund budget that is remaining for the year and when
the proposed 2010 cuts are added, it totals 40 percent of the
university’s state General Fund appropriation in 2008 on a Full-time Equivalent (either a full-time student or its equivalent of two part-time students) basis.

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Posted inPhoenix

Arizona don’t need no book learnin’

It was probably not a good sign when the email from ASU President Michael Crow — subject line "Proposed budget cuts and the future of Arizona" — landed in my spam folder. Of course, this was not an email from Crow's private address, but a mass mailing to Arizona State University alumni and supporters. Still, not a good omen.

The Kookocracy is now in charge, from the governor's office right down to Arpaio's gulag lite. Whatever the budget situation, their antipathy to education, especially those "socialist professors," is well known. While Janet Napolitano was governor, their worst tendencies were constrained. Now the extreme reactionaries have total power and the excuse of a budget deficit. They want to slash $600 million from Arizona universities, singling out higher ed to take the biggest hit from state cutbacks.

Crow is not overstating the stakes when he says the cuts threaten to give Arizona a "Third World education and economic infrastructure." Yet despite an emotional backlash against the Regents, I wonder if the extremist juggernaut can be stopped. Even without the further cuts, the damage is deep — and couldn't come at a worse time.

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Posted inUncategorized

Fire and rain and blame

I keep getting emails from friends asking if I'm okay. The national news has been saturated with reports of the flooding in western Washington. I'm fine, largely because I live within the long-established urban footprint of Seattle (downtown, happily). Most of the damage has come in the exurbs, and much of it is human-caused. This is our second straight year of unusual flooding. It won't be the last.

This reminds me of my return to Arizona in 2000. Every year forest fires would erupt threatening cabins on the Mogollon Rim (pronounced Mug-e-on) in the High Country. One particularly devastating fire began in 2002 when a woman had a fight with her boss (boyfriend?) while they were on a trip to service his vending machines (I am not speaking in euphemism here). She stalked off into the forest, wearing only shorts, tank top and flip-flops, carrying a towel, cigarettes and lighter — a survival kit I never learned about as a Boy Scout. When she became lost, she lit a "signal fire" that turned into one of the worst conflagrations in state history. (And you wonder why Arizona is rated America's dumbest state). Comedy aside, I was puzzled because these areas of the High Country had been mostly uninhabited National Forest land when I was a boy. Then I drove up and saw the "cabins" were mostly subdivisions plopped down amid stands of combustible pine trees.

These disasters, repeated around the West and indeed the nation, bring large public burdens, from relief efforts and firefighting, to higher insurance costs. Yet nothing is being done to address the cycle of disaster. And with climate change and other environmental degradation, we ain't seen nothing yet.

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Posted inPhoenix

The Kookocracy gets its moment

Now Janet Napolitano heads to Washington, leaving not much of a legacy in Arizona, despite what the Sewing Circle cult of personality would have us believe. She was a victim of her native caution and the unwillingness to take on issue No. 1 (land use and all its permutations, including sprawl and water) — to do otherwise would have caused the Real Estate Industrial Complex to destroy her ambitions. Michael Lacey has some further trenchant thoughts on immigration policy and deals with devils. But the biggest reason for Napolitano's failure is simply that the Legislature is by far the most powerful branch of government (the second being the media-ignored Corporation Commission). And the Legislature is dominated by kooks.

Now they will have one of their own as Secretary of State Jan Brewer ascends to the governorship. This is change I can believe in. Brewer is a member of the Kookocracy, having politicized the office charged with the integrity of elections. Except for Attorney General Terry Goddard, Arizona will now have an all-Kookocracy leadership. And I say, go for it. I want no Jane Hull-like temporizing or moments of sanity from Gov. Brewer. I want her to lead Arizona into the brave future that the minority who actually votes has consistently demanded.

This is the state where the most popular politician is Joe Arpiao, the civil-liberties-optional sheriff of Maricopa County. The state where Andrew Peyton Thomas won a resounding re-election as Maricopa County Attorney. Both have waged a thuggish war on the poor, underclass and minorities in the guise of "fighting illegal immigration." Funny, I have yet to see a big construction mogul or developer do a perp walk for hiring them by the hundreds.

It's time for Arizona to get the government it deserves.

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Posted inPhoenix

Why Arizona can’t ‘retool’ its economy

Even under the ownership of Gannett, with a publisher whose command to the newsroom is to "say something positive about the community" and a huge loss of talent and institutional knowledge, the Arizona Republic — er, Information Center — still does its occasional "let's do the right thing" stories. The latest appeared Sunday.

This is not investigative, "put-em-in-jail" journalism. Rather, it represents a white paper on the things the "community" needs to do to get better. The Republic has been doing this at least since the 1980s, when it became clear that Phoenix was headed for a trainwreck. I certainly wrote my share. And nothing ever happens. Now I read them, as the real power brokers must do, for entertainment value.

Editors must have been on vacation to allow Chad Graham, one of the small cadre of real reporters, to write:

The Valley's economy could start to recover in 2010. That is when some economists believe the glut of excess homes will be absorbed and new residents will spark new construction.But if history is a guide, metropolitan Phoenix will only seem to rebound. Despite decades of real- estate run-ups, quality-of-life measures for the region continue to fall.

That's the truth. But, then, the paper sometimes allows such unpleasantness on its pages. After all nothing will happen. Then the usual-suspect "experts" talking about "wake-up calls" and "initiatives" for biotech or solar power. There's just one problem with all of this:

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