Arizona’s cheer-leaders have their heads down, hoping to mute news of the severity of the recession there, hoping, hoping to get the sprawl machine rolling again. Unfortunately, evidence continues to emerge — if any more were needed — that the Arizona model is a failure. That is, unless one uses very limited metrics: population growth, houses built (ooops, until lately), golf courses, and a class of rich people living in an income gap reminiscent of the Third World.
The federal Bureau of Economic Analysis tracks data on per-capita income. This is the measure economists say best tells how people are actually doing. Arizona, with more than 6 million people, is the 16th most populous state in the nation. Yet its per-capita income ranks 39th, and is only 87 percent of the national average. That average includes places such as Mississippi. By comparison, Washington state ranks 14th in population and 15th in income. Colorado ranks only 22nd in population but 10th in income. Thus the argument that population growth and size are the determinants of economic success is another of those sunstroke lies.
The cheer-leaders often claim Arizona’s income is growing fast as a percentage. This is a statistical artifice partly based on rapid population growth and it never lifts actual per-capita income even to the national average at the end of the year. But in the latest BEA numbers, Arizona ranked last among the states in income growth rate from 2006 to 2007. This is a sign of a profound slowdown. I’ll be interested to see how this is reported/buried in the Arizona Republic, or referenced by GOP political operative Robert Robb, who has written the same columns over and over, using per-capita income growth to defend the status quo.
But no worries, cheer-leaders. Arizona won’t and can’t change. You’re "safe." Too bad the world keeps changing around it, and not to its advantage.