I wonder why news organizations are even covering, much less hyping, the testimony of Gen. David Petraeus before Congress this week. We know nothing will change. President Bush will do as he pleases. He has shown the president to be above the law on torture, eavesdropping of American citizens, environmental policy, etc. Why should the president be above common sense?
All three presidential candidates will be among the members of Congress questioning Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker. This, too, will be entirely predictable. McCain, why is slyly trying to conflate Sunni and Shia extremists for a gullible public, will proclaim that the escalation ("surge") is a success. Obama and Clinton will try to look presidential and tough without alienating the anti-war elements of their party.
Nothing will change until we have a new president and more Democrats in Congress. The only question is whether anyone has the guts to level with the American people about what the change will be.
Recent events in Basra, Iraq’s second largest city and major oil port, gave us a preview of what an American pullout will mean. The forces of the weak and compromised central government were routed by the Mahdi Army, a radical Shiite militia. Contrary to McCain’s spin, it was the government that sought the cease fire. This debacle had been prepared by the withdrawal of British troops, which had barely been keeping the lid on. And none of this had to do with al Queda in Mesopotamia, the homegrown Sunni extremist organization which did not exist before the American invasion.
It’s a mess and there’s no easy way out. McCain has said that a 100-year presence in Iraq would be fine — and we’re certainly building the bases and embassy for it — provided Americans aren’t being hurt or killed. That’s not going to happen. Iraq is barely a nation. It is a hornet’s nest of warring tribes and the heart of the ancient battle between Sunni and Shia Islam. American troops are barely keeping this powderkeg from exploding. Unfortunately, it is one we lit by invading, then failing to immediately provide for order and security.
Keeping the troops there in numbers to maintain even this bloody peace is not an option. The military is at a breaking point, as is the economy from a $3 trillion war. Getting out will be very, very ugly, as ancient grudges won’t be settled without the massive killing common to civil wars (even our own). When it’s over, one Shia sect will be ascendant, backed by a stronger Iran. Sunni Saudi Arabia, which supplied most of the Sunni foreign insurgents killing Americans, will be weakened, perhaps fatally (fill up that SUV now). But at least we will be out. None of the candidates are willing to discuss this.
None are willing to say, what do we do next? Partition Iraq? Pass a gas tax to start weaning America off Middle Eastern oil and military commitments? We left behind the easy answers when we chose to go after Saddam rather than Osama.
So we will get a week of posturing and falsehoods, especially from McCain, who will try to convince the American people that the war is going well, and they will be at mortal peril from the weak lefties on the Democratic side.