Tonight’s presidential debate was supposed to be about national security. If that happens, we can predict what will happen. Obama will probably appear presidential, although he’s had uneven debate performances. McCain will be all about scaring the bejesus out of the American public, painting Obama as a sissy and, by the way, did you know McCain was a POW?
Here are some issues that will really affect American national security that I’d bet won’t come up tonight. And so much the worse for us, because they have the potential to be far more dangerous to America than some terrorists living in caves, or Putin’s face, as Gov. Palin would have it, flying over Alaska.
1. Global warming. The Pentagon is already worried about its destabilizing consequences as poor, tropical countries go to war over resources — conflicts that will affect American interests — and try mass migrations to the rich north. Didn’t like illegal immigration over the past ten years? Just wait.
2. American debt. The huge current account deficit and shaky dollar mean that foreigners own us to an unprecedented degree, and the money we’ve borrowed has not been invested in anything useful, such as infrastructure. This situation is already constraining our foreign policy, and it will get worse. Many of our debtors don’t wish us well.
3. Peak oil, water and food. Shortages and competition for resources will be a source of conflict that will even overshadow Islamic extremism in the decades to come. The homeland is very insecure, from our lack of alternative transportation systems and the coming water disaster in the Southwest to the farmland lost to sprawl, leaving us to import food as well as oil.
4. The military-industrial complex, from the hundreds of billions spent on unaccountable private contractors to destabilizing overseas arms sales, and its growing and secretive power over the American government. It is subverting our Constitution and pushing us into conflicts, just as President Eisenhower warned it would. Meanwhile, our armed forces are both over-extended, and yet funded exponentially beyond our potential adversaries. Time to rethink our imperial ambitions?
5. A growing educational underclass. This cohort goes far beyond the conventional definition of an underclass, and includes tens of millions without the skills or education to compete in the 21st century economy. Our schools are too often poor, even if the rich school districts do fine. We lag our rivals in science and math education, not to mention foreign languages. And we are flagging in our historic leadership in science and research. This is a prescription for a poorer, less competitive America, especially when the money from the Boomer’s parents runs out.
Regarding item #1 and illegal immigration, other exacerbating factors include the fact that at current production rates Mexico’s proven oil reserves are expected to be exhausted in about 10 years. (That statistic comes from the U.S. government and is accepted by the mainstream oil industry, incidentally.)
Since Mexico’s two biggest income sources are oil revenues and remittances from workers in the U.S., the elimination of oil revenues has startling implications for immigration pressures.
Regarding item #2 and foreign lenders, it’s not just the current account deficit since foreign lenders have accounted for a soaring percentage of the U.S. national debt (that is to say, Debt to the Public) since 2000 — roughly half of U.S. debt sold on the bond markets is foreign owned.
Most of the national debt is rolled over: being far too large to ever pay off, the only way to handle it is to keep it from growing too quickly relative to the economy, thus keeping it a manageable percentage of GDP (since interest payments on the debt are supported by taxes, which are in turn supported by economic activity).
Rolling over the debt means that when bonds come due, an equivalent amount is reissued, so that money paid to those collecting on their bonds is offset by money from new investors (or by the old ones, if they renew their investment).
Investors want two things from their investment in Treasury bills and bonds: (a) security for their invested money, and (b) a decent return. Generally, greater security, meaning lower risk, implies that they are willing to accept a lower return.
If, however, for any reason investors decided to re-invest a portion of their U.S. Treasury bond portfolio elsewhere, the only way to lure them to stay would be to increase interest rates. That in turn could slow the U.S. economy or send it into recession, thus initiating another kind of downward spiral.