Hot enough for you, America? According to the federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, more than 2,000 high temperature records were reached or broken over the past week. For June, 3,200 record highs were broken. Places where I once lived sound unrecognizable: Days of 105 degrees in Denver, 4,000 feet higher than Phoenix and a place I remember for its enchanting cool-off in the summer twilight; records broken in Charlotte, where a temp of 104 is accompanied by nearly tropical and suffocating humidity — even in the old days, the Southern heat was miserable, but this? — and of course the August-like oven in June for Phoenix. Violent storms sweep the east and devastating wildfires tear across the West. Welcome to the new normal?
Only a fool would not recognize that climate change is coming on faster and worse than expected, and that it won't be a phenomenon that only affects poor people in the Third World. We are, to be sure, a nation of fools that is more interested in the implosion of TomKat than the implosion of the planet because of human activity. There are the usual excuses: The weather's always changing! Even if it is true, nothing can be done locally (statewide, regionally, nationally) because it is a global problem. Taking action would cost jobs. Here's my in-depth analysis that climate change is a hoax or not a big deal, even though I am not a climate scientist. Wait…Did Anderson Cooper just come out as gay? Look over here at the bright, shiny object, Moronistan.
The people in charge understand that climate change is no hoax. Even Exxon Mobil, which spent heavily to fund denier "science," admits the planet is warming. The new excuse now is that the change will be manageable, people will adapt. The plutocrats adapt by having summer houses in places such as the San Juan Islands. Can't we all just bootstrap ourselves into this brave new world?
This relies on more leaps of faith than Cal becoming a Mormon bishop. That our aging and stretched infrastructure can accommodate Phoenix-like air-conditioning demands across most of the nation. That water supplies won't be exhausted. That technology will somehow ameliorate the consequences with cool concrete, fairy dust in the atmosphere, magical hydrogen cars — you name it, we can fix it. Or so goes the creed. Believing this, one must assume against the evidence that we continue to be capable of the scientific leaps seen in the last half of the 20th century. A new smart phone won't cut it. One must assume we can outwit the feedback loops of human-caused climate change, from the methane that will be released as permafrost melts to the advance of tropical diseases into the warming northern hemisphere.
Meanwhile, confronted with growing evidence about climate change — not in some scientific paper but right outside — Moronistan is embarking on one last grab for all the hydrocarbons it can drill, frack or otherwise turn the planet into a sewer to find, and burn them up in (heavily air-conditioned) single-occupancy car trips to hasten climate change. What can we do? China won't go along. So, here's a bright idea, let's sell China our coal so we can make a profit as the planet heads for a big die-off. And we have a hundred years of natural gas and trillions of barrels of oil to discover and peak oil is a myth — the study by the guy who spent his career with an oil company proves it. Drill, baby, drill!
Our greed, ignorance and selfishness knows no limits. Above is a big example. Then we see the houses destroyed in the recent Colorado fires. While one should be sympathetic to the people who lost their dwellings, why aren't we demanding to know why the hell these subdivisions were built into forests and fire-carrying canyons and foothills? Who profited? Who was bought off at the county and state to allow it? And will we be expected to spend our tax dollars to fight the fires and help rebuild exurban sprawl? There's a reason fires don't reach the old towns. They were built in safe places.
Addressing climate change should be out first priority. It should be the No. 1 election issue. America could make a huge difference globally, both in its own output of greenhouse gases and leading other nations, if it would act. Failing to do so won't make the problem go away. It will merely tee up ever greater disruptions and ugly surprises. If I didn't love this country and know it could do so much better, if I didn't have to live through the hard times to come, I would look at Moronistan and say:
Burn, baby, burn.
131 Years of Global Warming in 26 Seconds
I am sure the CEO of Exxon will be calling you Jon to tell you he agrees with you and by the way I am moving to Short Creek to take over the FLSD.
to much LSD
I meant FLDS
Mr. Talton wrote:
“(Climate change) should be the No. 1 election issue. America could make a huge difference globally, both in its own output of greenhouse gases and leading other nations, if it would act.”
Maybe. What do you suggest? Specifically.
China is the number one emitter of greenhouse gases. Now, just think about that. The developed world emits roughly the same amount of greenhouse gases as before, and added to that is an amount larger than the United States puts out by itself, like a second America, only in Asia and without the pollution controls that America already possesses and enforces (imperfect as those are).
How can climate change be addressed without putting the brakes on America#2 which has not only put itself in first place in annual CO2 emissions, but which, in just a few decades, has put itself second in the cumulative list of CO2 emitters from 1850-2008 (the United States is in first place in the cumulative category)?
That’s a lot of polluting very quickly, and as China’s domestic demand is added to demand for its exports, both productions and pollution there are going to accelerate. Big time. China has a population of more than 1.3 billion and a substantial number of those residents are expected to come online as members of the country’s new consumer class. Consumption drives production, and production drives pollution.
Mr. Talton wrote:
“Only a fool would not recognize that climate change is coming on faster and worse than expected, and that it won’t be a phenomenon that only affects poor people in the Third World.”
Sorry to be a party pooper, but though the news article you linked to confirms that”in the past week, 1,011 records have been broken around the country, including 251 new daily high temperature records on Tuesday”, a close read of the article reveals critical contextual information:
“Those numbers might seem big, but they’re hard to put into context — the National Climatic Data Center has only been tracking the daily numbers broken for a little more than a year, said Derek Arndt, head of climate monitoring at the center.”
So, are we talking about temperatures only measured for a little over a year, and records broken relative to previous highs within that limited database?
Daily records are often broken. There are hot days. Hot weeks, hot months, too, which make single years record breakers. This does not indicate climate change and scientists who study climate change do not claim that it does.
Climate change is something predicted to take place by degrees over long periods of time (many decades). The current prediction is 4 degrees Celsius rise in average temperatures (globally), perhaps by as soon as 2060. That’s a little over 7 degrees Fahrenheit if I did the conversion correctly.
Now, it’s true that this is a global average, and that regional average temperatures (e.g., North America, the American Southwest) might change by more or by less than this, with respect to their local averages.
Can you give us some data on predictions for the United States in particular, and the Southwest specifically? Please be sure to include both the average degree change expected and the time period over which such a change is predicted. Also, the source and how recent the model is, because newer models actually suggest accelerated warming (relative to earlier predictions).
I found this regarding Denver:
“Denver usually gets a taste of scorching hot weather each year. On average, the thermometer hits 100 degrees Fahrenheit just one day in July. Temperatures in the 90s occur from June to September, including on about half of July days.”
Now, contrast this with the recent Denver weather:
“So far for June the average temperature for Denver stands at 74.1 degrees which is 7.4 degrees above normal. Denver’s warmest June on record is 73.5 degrees set in 1994 and given the forecast of hot weather for the remainder of the month we are likely to see a new monthly warm mark set by the time all the numbers are calculated this coming Sunday.”
https://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do;jsessionid=947833D60C62764422616BC6667BF038.agfreejvm2?symbolicName=/ag/blogs/template1&blogHandle=weather&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc37ec102e01382ee73ea802ac
So, it’s a little hotter in 2012 than it was in Denver during the same month in 1994. It’s a heat wave. We get it. How many years before it repeats? What does it all mean?
“What does it all mean?? Good question, Emil. Probably best answered by you. So go for it.
Can our power grid even handle the peak loads? We all remember brown-outs, don’t we?
Might we begin to tiptoe forward and re-introduce the subject of energy conservation? Are we up for small sacrifices unless they are mandated by that nasty socialist gub’ment? Could it be that the pervasive culture of “I’ve Got Mine” is colliding with resource-mandated reality? And if so, who will we blame?
“Addressing climate change should be out first priority. It should be the No. 1 election issue.”
Bush and Kerry had three “debates”. The environment was mentioned once. Energy policy was not mentioned even once.
Leadership.
“Maybe. What do you suggest? Specifically.”
Begin by bringing the energy utilities to heal…
https://ratecrimes.blogspot.com/2009/07/executive-summary.html
… or ‘heel’. 🙂
I enjoyed this fictitious “graduation address” by Tom Engelhardt:
TomDispatch: A Subprime Education in a Subprime World
Emil asks:
Maybe. What do you suggest? Specifically.
Let’s begin here: End the “massive subsidies”.
Perhaps I’ll have more to say about China. They aren’t a global warming denying nation and are actually doing a lot of things to get to a sustainable future. Things that may well change some fundamental ideas about the ground rules of the “marketplace”. And since the “marketplace” is the American Chimpanzee’s one true god, China’s ideas may will change the way that game is played.
“There’s a reason fires don’t reach the old towns. They were built in safe places.”
More likely, fires don’t reach the old towns because the fires get put out after they burn the sprawling exurbs.
As weather pertains to the Phoenix metro area, I believe the famous weather philosopher cal once said, “It ain’t the high highs, it’s the high lows” that are the issue.
In the recent past we have discussed the price of gas and the point at which drivers would change their driving habits. I used to think the magical number was $4.00 a gallon. I now feel it is $5 and up.
I never really gave any thought to electric bills until last week. As you may know, due to my wife and I downsizing a few years ago, along with our purchase of a new, high efficiency AC unit, our power bill for June was $115.
When I mentioned this at work, I was surprised to hear responses from others who stated their June bills were in the $400 to $600 range.
What will it take to motivate people to conserve? Obviously, it isn’t money.
The only thing I can think of is drawing a correlation between gas use and electricity use with the death of puppies and kittens. That is the only thing that I see motivating these people, puppies and kittens. Even Sheriff Joe is using puppies to win votes.
“What does all this mean”? Now here is a guy that thinks the answer to that question,is, not much. So the planet is just a little warmer this year. Just stay out of my road and I will engineer this thing “climate change” right up for you.
Meet Exxon’s “paid” Einstein.
https://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/exxon_ceo_says_climate_change_energy_Xz8CLVviV3ZGqLAAiEMd7M
Koreyel said, “And since the “marketplace” is the American Chimpanzee’s one true god, China’s ideas may will change the way that game is played.”
Id give a lot to be able to talk or write stuff like that.
AZRebel, I wouldn’t count on the death of puppies and kittens to motivate consumers or voters. Millions of animals are euthanized every year because most pet owners do not spay or neuter their pets (not to mention all those feral cats and dogs out there).
I used to think there would be a price point where people would have to find alternative means of transportation, but in suburbia, there are no alternative means since the commutes are so long and public transportation is for communists, the poor, and the smelly.
try this on for Highs and lows and climate change.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/weather/july-dec12/climate_07-02.html
I’m relocating to the Pacific Northwest.
Price does effect consumption.
The residents of highly modern Tokyo mostly hang dry clothing rather than use electrical dryers due to the cost of electricity. Europeans certainly prefer bikes and buses due, in part, to the price of petrol.
AzRebel obviously is a cut above and hangs with similar well-heeled individuals in which price is no problem:)
It is a lot warmer now in the US than it was in the 1960’s. Winters without snow were unheard of in the snowy northern parts of the US.
“In a world of persecution, that is burning in it’s greed ” – little did the Moody Blues realize their lyrics would become so literal. There is No western U S state that isn’t under the very real threat of uncontrollable wildfires. One friend in Ventura County had them a few years ago, now it’s CO, NM, AZ. Maybe WA or OR in a couple weeks. One thing’s for sure- we’re gonna get these headlines every year!
JMAV, thats what the PBS article suggested. Looks like Jon got a big jump on it.
“Addressing climate change should be out first priority. It should be the No. 1 election issue.”
I had high hopes that Obama would lead on this issue when he appointed Steven Chu as energy secretary. I thought that Romney showed awareness on this issue when he was governor.
The fact that it is not a campaign issue is a deliberate choice on the part of both candidates.
I’m afraid by the time our “leaders” are ready to lead, we will have passed climate tipping points. By then, 2012 will seem cool by comparison.
In response to koreyel’s comment that at least China does not deny climate change, one other thing that China is at least trying to do in terms of sustainability, is limit human population growth. Why are we not talking about that factor of climate change as well? We sure should be.
Annalisa, Malthus warned us 200 years ago.
But the compulsive obsessive greedy and religious nut jobs arent listening.
Forced abortions and intimidation…do we really want to have that conversation in America?
China may not deny climate change but they sure aren’t curbing their emissions. On they contrary, China is not only polluting its air to extents not ever seen in the U.S. but also spewing toxins into their water and soil. They may not need laws limiting children if they continue on this course.
This isn’t a haboob moving through Beijing, it is actual smog:
https://www.oneonta.edu/faculty/allenth/EnvironmentalIssuesTracyAllen/ChinaAirPollutionTracyAllen.JPG
And let’s not forget about Beijing hiding its issues with pollution behind the Vienna Convention:
https://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/06/world/asia/china-asks-embassies-to-stop-measuring-air-pollution.html
If there is a country we should look to “compete” with in terms of ingenuity and the race to replace nuclear and fossil fuels, Germany would be it.
About population growth in the U.S.: the birth rate has slowed considerably even among the immigrant population. According to the Brookings Institute: “While some might welcome slowed population growth, it is nonetheless a worrisome trend for a few reasons. First, the ability of the United States to maintain high and rising standards of living will depend in part on keeping a large share of its population in the workforce.”
https://www.brookings.edu/up-front/posts/2011/12/28-census-population-frey
Anderson Cooper is gay?
I hope that doesn’t cause me to have sleepless nights.
What time is it?
2:53 am ?
oh oh !?
“(Exxon CEO Rex) Tillerson blames a public that is ‘illiterate’ in science and math”
Yes, but what does Tyrannosauras Rex have to say about M. King Hubbert? And, why not take your fossil fuel profits and educate the public?
Rex, you’re a dumbass.
“Forced abortions and intimidation…do we really want to have that conversation in America?”
No, we would prefer to continue imagining a limitless oblivion of consumption.
“we would prefer to continue imagining a limitless oblivion of consumption.”
That is a different conversation than population control. Limiting consumption and becoming evermore efficient with our resources is a conversation we should be having.
“First, the ability of the United States to maintain high and rising standards of living will depend in part on keeping a large share of its population in the workforce.”
Generational slavery for “high and rising standards of living” for increasingly few.
“Anderson Cooper is gay?”
Oh yeah!!!
“Generational slavery for “high and rising standards of living” for increasingly few.”
Or, as in Europe, this type of social structure is known as a social compact. The young help to take care of the old and indigent just as the generations before should have.
“That [consumption] is a different conversation than population control.”
10 mouths * 1 apple = 1 mouth * 10 apples
…or…
1 Global Cornucopia = 10 BILLION (and counting)
Maybe Rex was right?!
“(Exxon CEO Rex) Tillerson blames a public that is ‘illiterate’ in science and math.”
“Or, as in Europe, this type of social structure is known as a social compact. The young help to take care of the old and indigent just as the generations before should have.”
I’m looking around here, and I don’t see hide nor hair of any “social compact”. I see grumpy old farts criticizing lazy kids for not gettin’ a job; with their enormous Lincoln Towncars, running over young fathers bicycling to work; enjoying three squares of cholesterol-laden meals with meds for (a second) desert; and ready willin’ and able to vote Romney.
What an insanely simplistic example (consumption of apples) to give for a complex problem.
It isn’t so much the consumption of food, but the resources used to produce them. How do we become more efficient in production of those necessities; limiting the distance those “apples” have to travel to get to market, limiting soil degradation via multi-cropping (for instance), and so on.
“What an insanely simplistic example (consumption of apples) to give for a complex problem.”
Forgive me, I’m only a child, I’m ignorant of science and math, and I spend all my time commenting on blogs.
“I’m looking around here, and I don’t see hide nor hair of any “social compact”. I see grumpy old farts criticizing lazy kids for not gettin’ a job; with their enormous Lincoln Towncars, running over young fathers bicycling to work; enjoying three squares of cholesterol-laden meals with meds for (a second) desert; and ready willin’ and able to vote Romney.”
That is something I can’t argue with…but that isn’t the future I want when I grow old. And for the sake of those old farts now, I am willing to pay a little more “taxes” to ensure they have decent insurance so they can live out the rest of their years comfortably…I can’t bring myself to hate people just because they are stupid, grumpy, and happen to be old I just don’t like them.
“It isn’t so much the consumption of food …”
Sounds like you have multiplication mastered. 🙂
“but that isn’t the future I want when I grow old”
You and I will die alone and foresaken in a barren, post-apocalyptic wasteland where our bones will be gnawed by radioactive rats. If we’re lucky, we’ll be used as living targets for casual firearms practice and the entertainment of the younger generation. Can’t say I’ll blame them. But, they’ll find Rex Tillerson first. Cheer up! 🙂
You point at others as being illiterate in math and science but fail to understand that in the U.S., agriculture currently relies on a steady inputs necessary to grow more food. The challenge ahead is becoming even more efficient, limiting waste (water, and foodstuff that is discarded), and reducing miles that have to be covered to get those goods to market (carbon footprint).
Anyway, back to a grownup conversation: this global warming will end around the 4th of July! It is expected to rain in Phoenix! See, you guys worry to much!
https://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2012/07/02/20120702phoenix-area-monsoon-thunderstorms-could-bring-july-4-fireworks.html
(Sorry, just trying S.C.’s slant in terms of conversing with others)
It was the shift to “efficient” cultivation of food, rather than simple extraction of what the Earth had to offer (which, not incidentally, rather “efficiently” gave birth to our species in the first place,) that begat the inordinate growth of our population in the first place.
The road to Hell is paved with good intentions.
Petro, that is part of what occurred, but really it was access to infrastructure that allowed the population to grow exponentially; sanitation, cities, education, etc.
Efficiency itself doesn’t lead to population growth otherwise Japan’s and Europe’s population would be growing NATURALLY and not shirking (even with increased immigration).
https://www.cnn.com/2012/01/30/world/asia/japan-population-decline/index.html
I wrote that education led to population growth which isn’t specific enough for arguments sake; technological innovations in engineering and medicine lead to population growth…
I understand the perception, pSf, but those factors that you outline are results, not causes. They could not be dreamed of, let alone actualized, without the bounty of “plenty” that efficient resource extraction enabled.
Your contributions here seem to portray fine character, as such I presume that you are not a Dominionist. As such, I’d expect that you might be willing to entertain a wary eye upon cultivation.
(I do not mean to imply that disagreement with this would impugn your character, of course!)
10-4 Petro. I remember hearing someone say, something like “the invention of Agriculture was the beginning of mans downfall.” And I am not convinced man can engineer himself to god level gene’s.
As to efficient production and greedless consumption, OK bring it on. As to Sir Thomas and population control, I look forward to a radioactive free small populated planet with a hunter gatherer culture.
Of course we grouchy old dudes, me and REB probably will not live that long but then we got and spent ours. I wish you the best of luck Phxsunfan as you are the most positive dude with the best of intentions.
I didn’t feel like Jons column was “party pooped” on. I thought it was very good and it generated some human hot air which is a good thing.
I think the overall facts and factoids that I am aware of tend to make me believe that in the last 100 years the planet has accelerated dramatically in its cyclical patterns.
Oh, you old Romantic, cal.
Petro, I understand your concerns (and no I am not a conservative Christian, or even religious to a slight degree), but I think we are arguing chicken or egg here.
For example: did better sanitation cause population to grow or was the result of better sanitation population growth? It is semantics which I hate arguing.
My point still stands, efficiency doesn’t lead to population growth. If that was the case what I stated above would not be occurring and poorer nations (which aren’t efficient at growing their own food) wouldn’t be adding people.
Issues I do have with current forms of “efficient cultivation” are: increased runoff (especially pesticides and fertilizers), single crop yields which aren’t efficient at replacing nutrients into the soil, and miles driven (energy, fuel, etc used) to transport our food supply.
Noted, with equanimity.
Another point I would make is that because people became more educated (innovations in science) we became more efficient. Since people were healthier, people we able to focus on developing efficient techniques for just about everything. And because we congregated in cities we were able to more efficiently use resources; of course, resource consumption in cities over time looks like a bell curve.
Equanimity; what a great word! I’m off until Monday so you guys have me all week: I apologize in advance. 😉
Is that a proposition?
To get a better handle on the universes population models I have rented all the Alien movies and Prometheus.
(Spits out coffee)
If you’re Anderson Cooper!
Speaks volumes
Do you mean we shouldn’t be attracted to attractive people?
Is Prometheus (2012) a remake of an older movie?
“Prometheus” is a prequel to the Alien series – although Ridley Scott apparently doesn’t like that characterization.
You’re kidding about renting that, right, cal? Because I don’t see any DVD rips out there for downloading yet… and I’m watching for them (I don’t want to bother with the cam bootlegs.)
“understand that in the U.S., agriculture currently relies on a steady inputs necessary to grow more food”
“The Locavore’s Dilemma: In Praise of the 10,000-mile Diet”
https://www.amazon.com/The-Locavores-Dilemma-Praise-000-mile/dp/1586489402
In my post I suggested to Emil that we begin by removing the “massive subsidies” to oil corporations. I was expecting Emil to do everyone a great service and attempt to debunk those “massive subsidies”.
If they can be debunked Emil will find a way. If they can’t, then Emil will find a way to enumerate them and we can begin a conversation on how the subsidies could be better spent for our future.
What would I like to see regarding the reworked subsidies:
A fantastic rebate for American homeowners to put up solar panels or solar water heaters. Along those lines, can you believe “they” still allow houses to be built in AZ without mandatory solar hot water heaters? That’s sort of like living where the streets are made of gold and you use mercury to fill cavities in your mouth. The best time to put up a solar water heater is to design it in with the house. But of course, that would mean a “regulation”. That would mean telling someone what to do. That would mean a loss of freedom. And we do love our freedom to waste here…
phxSUNSfan suggest we would do better to compete with Germany than China. Sorry friend, that’s out of our league. Those people believe in regulations. Can you imagine what Germany would do if they owned the state of AZ? Can you imagine the rules! The resultant solar infrastructure? The loss of our builders freedom to put the hot water tank as far from the main shower as they can? So that 100,000+ homes have to wait 45 seconds for the hot water to get there, and all that excess cold water goes down the drain day after day after day in a desert…
Compete with Germany? Let’s not even pretend. I mean really, your Governor doesn’t even have a college degree. And everybody in the rented State House is watching Fox News…
C’mon. Get real.
“Desrochers only allows for the coexistence of locavores and agribusiness, of urban farmers and urbanization, in one place: the production of niche products for rich folks. He leaves no room for many of the benefits that Rich documents are already taking place, and he sidesteps some of the biggest problems these urban farmers think need addressing.
Flip to the back of Desrochers’ book, and the topic of obesity gets this meager entry: “145, 146, 166″ (Michael Pollan, on the other hand, gets 16 pages). Surely locavores have their extremists, just as any other movement does. But if Michael Pollan himself has never advocated a full-scale return to pre-industrial agrarianism, is there really such a menace?”
https://www.theatlanticcities.com/arts-and-lifestyle/2012/07/debating-local-food-movement/2435/
“Sorry friend, that’s out of our league. Those people believe in regulations.”
It would seem the half of Americans believe in regulations (especially those that would benefit society) while the other half does not. The problem is getting the half that believes to vote as much as those that believe their personal freedoms are being restricted if they, for instance, buy a house with a solar water heater built into their house.
They have powerful renewable energy foes in Germany whom are threatening advancements made, especially in solar technology:
“Soon the usual bunch of anti-renewable energy vultures within the conservative party joined the criticism and voiced their support for rapid cuts to ‘contain solar energy.’ They are a relatively powerful group within Angela Merkel’s conservative party and have close ties to powerful industry groups and the conventional power and energy corporations.”
https://cleantechnica.com/2012/06/28/sol-invictus-german-government-cuts-solar-fit/
Depends on what kind of regulations! Need an abortion? NOT ALLOWED (due to regulation)! Need a morning after pill? NOT ALLOWED (due to regulation)! Need a condom or the pill? Soon not to be allowed (its against God’s will ya’ know).
Same way everyone is against corporate subsidies, unless it involves oil, gas, roads, the military, mineral extraction, timber cutting, and the all important “FREE MARKET” (as if one ever existed).
The US could easily compete with Germany or China (and we do in many things). It only takes better management than what the MBA schools churn out here. The problem with US business is its management. They are out for themselves and not the stockholder, not the community, and certainly not ever the worker. A hear a bull whip crackin’.
Regulations in Mississippi will likely close the only remaining abortion clinic in that state. A state with nearly 3 million people…
https://www.wtsp.com/news/article/262222/81/Mississippis-only-abortion-clinic-stays-open-for-now
I don’t think anyone that contributes on this blog would be advocating for regulations that would be detrimental to society or harmful to individuals (like restricting access to reproductive health).
Getting back to this thread and heat, the Republic actually printed an article by Eugene Robinson regarding climate change and the heat:
https://www.usatoday.com/USCP/PNI/Editorial/2012-07-03-PNI0703opi-robinsonPNIBrd_ST_U.htm
*Couldn’t find the digital format on AZcentral so had to post the link from USA Today’s site.
PETRO, I have already seen Prometheus and the Alien movies.
They r ok. I was just trying to James Joyce around as i am upset that both Cooper an Phoenix sun fan stood me up.
Iam looking forward to a high noon shoot out featuring Koreyel and Emil with Jon as referre.
The high tomorrow will be in the nineties.
Global cooling.
Looks like another ice age is on the way.
**********************************
The movie JAWS kept me out of the ocean for 4 decades.
The first Alien movie will keep me out of space for an equal length of time.
Yer killin’ me, Reb.
Oh, I almost forgot to apologize to Slave Child for nicking him with my Towncar (aka, the Ghost Car)!
AZRebel seems to be running out of vacation options!
Still don’t believe in climate change? Then you’re either deep in denial or delirious from the heat.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/eugene-robinson-feeling-the-heat/2012/07/02/gJQANNZGJW_story.html?wpisrc=emailtoafriend
Meanwhile, in the heart of Moronistan:
https://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/20120703western-wildfires-guns-blamed.html
And how are those tax cuts working out for y’all?
https://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2018585203_firestaxes03.html
And 94 in Phoenix in July? That’s why it’s called climate *change.* But the Southwest trend is for more extreme heat.
“Guns blamed for starting wildfires in parched West”
Then why didn’t The Duke or Clint ever ignite a wildfire. Hah!
Colorado’s emergency-response teams burned by anti-tax attitudes
“‘Ironically, Colorado Springs is going to rely heavily on federal funds for rebuilding,’ Dunn said. ‘But it won’t cover everything.'”
Ironically hypocritical.
CONSERVATION: this seems to be a common theme running through much of our discussion about excessive heat and climate change, right?
To me (and most of us I suspect) it has become increasingly apparent that we’ll need to buy into a culture of conservation that abhors (sp?) waste and rewards reasonable frugality and right-sizing. Governor Saint Janet repeatedly advanced this set of beliefs but they pretty much fell on deaf ears, ‘specially during the go-go years Jon describes as the “growth-gasm”.
Today, scholars like Emil can write chapter, book and verse on this subject, but I am simply reminded of one of Jon’s recent comments about investing, “don’t be greedy and don’t be stupid”.
We no longer live in an era where the theology of MORE is a workable one. The too-big house, car and prime rib have become yesterday’s news but the migration path is a bumpy road.
From Talton’s latest links:
Really very timely Jon, thanks…
The answer to Louinda’s question is no.
No one tells me what to do.
Freedom! Freedom! Freedom!
Let Freedom Ring!
And that, Mr Lash, is why I called us a nation of Chimpanzees. It didn’t used to be that way. I hope everyone had a chance to read that Front Page link of a few days ago. If not here it is again: Spoiled Rotten in The New Yorker.
As far as the opinions of Clark Aposhian (chairman of the Utah Sports Shooting Council), what orifice do you think he pulled that 5% figure from?
The positive side of the natural gas boom, from a climate change perspective, is that it offers a strong motive for U.S. power generation companies to switch from coal burning power plants to clean burning natural gas plants.
“When (natural) gas is trading at $6 per million British thermal units, it is 50% cheaper than coal over the life of a power plant. Today, gas is trading near $2.”
“Since 1990, (U.S.) power companies have selected coal for merely 6% of new (power) generation. (Natural) gas was the fuel for 77% (of new power generation), even as coal has been far more competitive than it is today.”
So, what prodded markets before the fracking boom, when coal was more competitive?
“One major reason” (for the shift from coal to natural gas generated electrical plants) is the Environmental Protection Agency, which has been regulating against carbon like crazy. The EPA has effectively banned new coal (power plants), and other rules are grinding down the existing fleet.”
This is an exaggeration: capitalists (and their ideological lackeys) pule like colicky babies whenever they don’t get their way, and in fact the same article (see link below) mentions the construction of new coal-fired plants by Southern Company. But regulatory pressures exist.
EPA regulation may assume a larger role in future days as the U.S. builds more terminals and natural gas exports increase: “You’re going to see a harmonization of world-wide (natural) gas prices, much like the global commodities markets for oil. Right now the U.S. has a dividend coming to the economy in terms of cheap energy.”
The big loophole is coal exports, to China, India, and elsewhere: these have “doubled since 2007”. So, all that coal (and more) is still being burned, not by us, but by developing nations with weak to nonexistent regulatory environments. (I refer to enforced regulations, not theoretical, on-paper regulations.)
The United States, which owns “28 percent of the world’s coal reserves”, could ban the export of coal to dirty producers like China; or it could include the environmental cost of dirty Chinese production in Chinese product prices via an environmental tariff applying to imports of Chinese goods. It could also organize, through a combination of rewards and coercion, a coalition of developed nations to do this more effectively.
The chance of this happening is zero, because American capitalists love underpriced Chinese goods (underpriced because China lacks the regulatory overhead of the United States and other developed countries). China is the big end-run, not only around EPA regulations governing pollution and OSHA regulations governing workforce safety, but also NLRB regulations governing free and independent union organization. This, aside from standard of living differences, is their great competitive advantage.
By outsourcing production to China, American capitalists no longer have to factor in these expenses, either in product costs or in labor costs. Of course, it’s a deal with the devil: American consumers benefit from lower prices, but lose even more in lower wages as labor-intensive manufacturing jobs (traditionally unionized) fly East; the difference goes to the capitalists in increased profits, and in the capital gains which increased profits bring to shareholders via stock appreciation.
The chance is zero, because capitalists control the U.S. campaign finance system now as never before (after Citizens United and other terrible Supreme Court decisions).
Wealth insulates. When the nation is sweltering, undergoing water depleting, agriculture destroying droughts (or, in some places, flooding, hurricanes, and/or tornadoes with the same effect), the capitalists will be living comfortbly in temperate climes, safe and sound behind the walls of their mansions, eating imported luxury foods and drinking bottled water, and complaining about the wicked laziness of the welfare class. By the time the mobs figure it out and take up pitchforks and ropes, they’ll be stymied by the cost of airfare to places like Hawaii or other remote locales where their intended victims manage their commercial and financial empires via cellphone and the Internet.
The logic of this is disturbing. Among those who agree that the wealthy control the political system via campaign financing, professional lobbying, and media ownership, only idiots will expect fundamental political reform to emerge by means of individual political lobbying, educational outreach in the mass media, and conventional political organization and activity. The natural tendency is for economic concentration to increase over time (those who start the race with a comfortable lead are more likely to maintain or increase it), and insofar as economic concentration is allowed to interfere with regulation over itself (via tax law, campaign finance law, etc.) the normal channels for ameliorative feedback are narrowed, not enlarged.
https://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303448404577410473497091202.html
U got it right Emil. Baron Nation States.
Its been coming for a long time. A return to the good ole days.
The return of Prince John and Sheriff Joe.
and a interesting piece
A climate scientist battles time and Mortality.
https://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/03/science/earth/lonnie-thompson-climate-scientist-battles-time.html?_r=1
This post is in honor of all the Americans who didn’t study history and who don’t know history. Instead they are the graduates of the school of TV and movie industry.
So…………Happy Birthday America. Today we look back to the day that Ben Franklin announced that he had invented the flash light. His buddy Paul Revere rode through the streets flashing the flash light twice to signal that the fireworks show down at the mall was one hour away from starting. At the mall, Betsey Rose Wilcox had her national flag on display. She was not paid for her services, so the bill continued to grow until her great-great-great-great-great granddaughter was able to recently collect the money.
The reason we celebrate this day is because without the invention of the flashlight, President LIncoln would not have been successful in his vampire hunting and the country would be overrun with bloodsucking welfare slackers living off the toil and sweat of our beloved billionaires and job creators.
God Bless America
Amen
Happy 236th. Any bets on whether we make it to the Tricentennial?
“…Oh, Lady Midnight/I fear that you grow old./The stars eat your body/and the wind makes you cold…”
– Leonard Cohen
petro, you’re scaring me. What did you do to that old lady??
I”m betting it’s even money we get to 300 years old before we hit the tricentennial.
REB U smokin dat chit agin?
I dont know if U noted but them Israelis that discovered THC
at the request of our illustrious Arizona leaders invented NHW.
U all enjoy the firecrackers today.
I am kicked back re-reading “God Is RED and Custer died for your Sins”
re: Emil’s post above.
Combine the tidal wave of money awash within our political system, along with an electorate that has been TV’d, Internet’ed and iPhoned into mental mush and you end up with a system which can be used to move the masses in very scary ways.
I bet with enough TV ads, you could convince the lemmings to stampede off a cliff if the puppet masters decided that would be fun to watch.
(come to think of it, it would be a good way to rid our country of all the FOX news worshippers.)
Here U go Reb.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/israeli-grown-plant-offers-marijuana-high/story?id=16706085#.T_TTJ1ETvJw
I am taking a break from Vine Deloria and watching a global warming movie.
AI
AI is over.
Guess U all r at the AZREBEL firework display.
Thats where they blow up Coors beer cans with M80s.
And before I go to sleep.
Manunkind can kiss my progress.
No such thing as progress, just reorganization of existing atoms.
But the fact train rolls on!
Man has no permanent answer for “the problem” !!!
The forces of the galaxies hold the cards in this deal.
Just hang around. Industry and agriculture will vanish
and the few that are left on the planet earth will be called “hunter gatherers.”
From a place far far away in another galaxy I offer my ancient wisdom.
Factoid de loco
This is way off topic, but many of you (especially Jon) may find this interesting: the Arizona Opera will be moving into the building next to the Flinn Foundation at Central and McDowell. The building looks gutted and some walls have been removed in order for the expansion of the buiding. It will include practice facilities for the Opera. In no way will it take up the vacant lot but it is good that another facility like this will be near PAM.
A contributor on skyscraper forum posted pictures of the project and a link to the story from 2011 in the Republic concerning expansion:
https://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=173764&page=169
Very good news, pSf
koreyel wrote:
“In my post I suggested to Emil that we begin by removing the “massive subsidies” to oil corporations. I was expecting Emil to do everyone a great service and attempt to debunk those “massive subsidies”. If they can be debunked Emil will find a way. If they can’t, then Emil will find a way to enumerate them and we can begin a conversation on how the subsidies could be better spent for our future.”
Flattered, and it’s an interesting question. Some of the estimates I’ve seen include a lot of intangibles in calculating the subsidy cost, which inflates the total; others fail to include indirect but real subsidies, which underestimates it. Sorting through this would take at least a solid day online doing nothing else.
Unfortunately, Emil has limited Internet time, a lengthening list of interesting topics to look into, question, and respond to, and in general is falling behind.
Carbon dioxide is the primary manmade greenhouse gas responsible for global warming, and fossil fuels are responsible for 96 percent of carbon dioxide emissions.
The three sectors responsible are utilities (energy production), manufacturing, and transportation.
I’ve dealt above with China as today’s primary malefactor in dirty manufacturing (comparative absence of pollution controls) and dirty electrical power generation (while the United States regulates new coal-fired plants out of existence and the U.S. boom in natural gas production results in low prices on our national market, encouraging the switch to cleaner burning natural gas, China continues to rely primarily on dirty coal-fired plants).
What about transportation?
The U.S. currently has the world’s largest auto fleet at about 240 million vehicles. China is second with 219 million (100 million cars and an additional 119 million motorcycles).
However, China’s de facto emission standards are abysmal, compared to the United States.
The Center for Automotive Research, in a 2011 study, estimates that the U.S. auto fleet will grow by 44 million by 2025 (though I suspect this overestimates the increase because it uses projected new household formation to determine increases, without figuring in the decrease in auto ownership among retiring baby boomers).
https://www.cargroup.org/assets/files/ami.pdf
According to Ming Ouyang, Head of the Department of Automotive Engineering at Tsinghua University, the number of cars on China’s roads are predicted to triple to 300 million within 15 to 20 years.
https://www.oats.co.uk/lubes-resource-centre/environment-and-regulatory-watch/article-613/china-now-has-100-million-cars/
So, China will overtake the U.S. in fleet size, and poor emissions standards will result in vast amounts of carbon dioxide pumped out by Chinese autos.
ExxonMobil, in a 2008 study projecting energy trends to 2030, writes:
“Transportation, currently responsible for more than half of total oil demand, is expected to grow substantially. From 2005 to 2030, demand in developed countries is expected to be essentially flat, reflecting significant penetration by more-efficient vehicles. In contrast, demand in developing countries is likely to more than double as economies grow and rising prosperity leads to a dramatic increase in personal vehicles.”
As for CO2 emissions from all three sources (utilities, manufacturing, and transportation), the prediction is OMINOUS from a climate change perspective:
“Global CO2 emissions are projected to rise by close to 30 percent between 2005 and 2030, even with improved energy efficiency and growth in nuclear and renewable energies. Although CO2 emissions are expected to begin declining in the United States and Europe over the period to 2030, these declines will be more than offset by increases in developing countries. For example, by 2030 China is expected to have CO2 emissions comparable to those in the U.S. and EU combined.”
https://www.exxonmobil.com/corporate/files/news_pub_2008_energyoutlook.pdf
This is why I harp about China whenever climate change threads pop-up here.
One last quote from the ExxonMobil report:
“Power generation will be the largest and fastest growing energy-demand sector through 2030. China, which today meets almost 90 percent of its power needs with coal, will see its energy demand for power generation more than double by 2030, surpassing U.S. demand by more than one-third.”
The share of Chinese power generation coming from non-coal power sources is projected as a larger but still comparatively small slice of overall Chinese energy production in 2030; and Exxon Mobil projects China increasing coal usage well beyond today’s quantities, even as nuclear and renewables come online.
See the graph titled “Power Generation By Region” on page 12 of the report:
https://www.exxonmobil.com/corporate/files/news_pub_2008_energyoutlook.pdf
If we could get all 7 billion of us to hold our breath for one minute each day we would reduce carbon dioxide output by 2,000,000 tons per year.
I’ll do my part starting now.
Done. See, that wasn’t so hard.
Try it.
NBC prime time news tonite: Kate Snow sat in for Brian Williams and ran a detailed piece on our western forest fires, suggesting that climate change was playing a part in this debacle . . even showed belching smokestacks and tailpipes! Que milagro!
It may sometimes seem that I disagree with the conclusion of the writer when I am merely objecting to the technical form of the argument. I may instead agree with the conclusion, or I may be open minded (convince me).
“Nine of the 10 warmest years since 1880 have occurred since the year 2000, as the Earth has experienced sustained higher temperatures than in any decade during the 20th century. As greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels continue to rise, scientists expect the long-term temperature increase to continue as well. (Data source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory, Robert Simmon)”
https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2011-temps.html
Ten years of data seem much more convincing to me than a heat wave lasting a few days, a week, or even a month.
As can be seen from the graph “Global Temperature Difference” at the NASA website linked to below, most of the increase in the five year mean (in global temperature) has occurred since 1975. (This measure was roughly stable, within the range of measurement uncertainty (the grey bars), from 1935 to 1975.)
https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/616908main_gisstemp_2011_graph_lrg%5B1%5D.pdf
“The temperature analysis produced at GISS is compiled from weather data from more than 1,000 meteorological stations around the world, satellite observations of sea surface temperature and Antarctic research station measurements. A publicly available computer program is used to calculate the difference between surface temperature in a given month and the average temperature for the same place during 1951 to 1980. This three-decade period functions as a baseline for the analysis.
“The resulting temperature record is very close to analyses by the Met Office Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.”
So far, so good. The problem is that I don’t know what weighting is given to the 1,000 meteorological stations (most of which are urban-based, I presume) and the satellite measurements of sea-surface temperature and Antarctic research station measurements. Since urban based meteorological stations far outnumber the latter two categories of data collection sites, there would need to be some sophisticated mathematical modelling to give equal weight to these latter categories.
The reason this is important is that since 1975 the world has become considerably more urbanized and the heat-island effect is most noticeable in urban settings. The larger the urban setting and the more concrete and blacktop, the larger the effect. The increase in the five-year mean from the zero-point around 1975 to 2011, is 0.51 degrees Celsius (about 0.92 degree Fahrenheit, if I’ve done the conversion correctly).
This isn’t so much that, without further information, I couldn’t positively rule out the heat island effect. The thing is, the mean temperature includes not only daytime highs but also nighttime lows, and the heat-island effect drives nighttime lows higher in urban areas.
I should note that this has probably already been considered. It’s elementary. I wouldn’t be surprised if climate change skeptics had arrived at similar speculation independently, and non-skeptics already dealt with it. And I am certainly not remotely qualified as informed, much less expert, on the subject of climate change or global warming. But if anyone knows where I can find a discussion of this issue (quantifying the effect from heat-islands versus global atmospheric warming per se), I’d appreciate a link.
Well, here’s an interesting point raised in the (NASA sourced) video link provided by Petro at the beginning of comments:
“You’ll note an acceleration of those temperatures in the late 1970s as greenhouse gas emissions from energy production increased worldwide and clean air laws reduced emissions of pollutants that had a cooling effect on the climate, and thus were masking some of the global warming signal.”
Does anyone know which pollutants (reduced by clean air laws in the late 1970s) had a cooling effect that “masked” global warming? What are the pernicious effects of such pollutants, and might they (or something chemically similar but less problematic) be used to combat global warming?
Emil: what if you narrow your visual field to analyze our section of AZ . . . heat island and all? The Republic’s Shaun McKinnon writes that we are in a prolonged hotter/drier cycle. Do you see any evidence to contradict this?
Emil, from what I remember “global cooling” gasses are mostly aerosols. For instance: clouds (water droplets), smoke, ash, and smog. Nitrous oxide is another aerosol that in great quantity has an albedo effect in the atmosphere.
As you might imagine, many of these gases (aside from clouds) are irritants and cause respiratory issues for people and animals. As for aerosols that are less problematic and can be used for their albedo effect, I’m not certain if there is anything that can be used.
If the earth where to have massive volcanic eruptions, then ash is another aerosol that would certainly cool the planet. Though you can imagine the disastrous implications for people.
As with most of our national discussions these days, half the crowd feels one way and half the crowd feels the other way. Both sides of the global warming issue have many good arguments.
The basic theory about the effects of human caused CO2 is that, while small compared to natural exchange rates, the cumulative effect is what is at issue. Since nature can’t directly deal with the manmade stuff, it builds.
I have a funny feeling that proponents on both sides have many players who don’t understand the power of the cumulative effect, in the same way that many “savvy” financial people don’t truly understand the powerful dymanics of compound interest.
Compound interst can be your greatest friend when it is working for you. It could kill you when working against you.
The same is true of the cumulative effect of CO2.
Given that I only mastered general math at my peak I have to depend on my poorly tuned senses. Since I dont watch tv or listen to the radio I have in the last 62 years been able to step outside and get a pretty good handle on the weather. In the last 10 years I have also been able to discern that there is something different about the planet than my first 62 years before that. Based on my science I have concluded the planet is on fire and regardless of only one child per family or all the smoke stack scrubbers in the world the planet is on its way to an agonizing death accelerated by “manunkind”.
The full moon shows its pull.
Global warming. Rise in number of naked criminals.
Is there a connection?
Is ordering a naked criminal to get on the the hot pavement and spread em, cruel and unusual punishment?
A quick note on projections of CO2 output in China and developing nations:
There is already some effect, albeit inadequate, from our growing awareness of the dangers involved in unchecked growth. One can reasonably assume that there will be some braking on this growth due to this (also likely to be inadequate, however significant.) While admittedly more sluggish, even our psychological “liberty” eventually exhibits closed systems behavior.
For this, and other reasons – resource depletion, economic malaise (demand reduction) – these projections are probably “optimistic.”
Sadly, however,, I remain convinced that we have already passed the tipping-point in terms of catastrophic climate change. Even if we were able to factor out the psychological sluggishness (aka denial.)
Sorry for only one post this week. Between the holiday and my day job, I just ran out of time.
No apology required. This was a fun piece. Probably could roll on for a long time. Maybe the upcoming election contest between the Theocratic candidates will solve it all.
May God and Allah be with you as U drown in the floods of melting ice caps.
morecleanair wrote:
“Emil: what if you narrow your visual field to analyze our section of AZ . . . heat island and all? The Republic’s Shaun McKinnon writes that we are in a prolonged hotter/drier cycle. Do you see any evidence to contradict this?”
Not offhand. In another recent thread, I examined the 30 year patterns of highs and lows for Phoenix specifically. I also included this:
Nine of the top 10 all-time hottest days in Phoenix occurred since 1989:
10 All-Time Hottest Weather Temperature Days in Phoenix
1. June 26, 1990 – 122
2. July 28, 1995 – 121
3. June 25, 1990 – 120
Tie-4th. July 2, 2011 – 118
T-4. July 21, 2006 – 118
T-4. July 27, 1995 – 118
T-4. June 28, 1990 – 118
T-4. June 27, 1990 – 118
T-4.July 4, 1989 – 118
T-4. July 11, 1958 – 118
https://phoenix-az.knoji.com/10-alltime-hottest-weather-temperature-days-in-phoenix/
The greatest number of 100 degree days in a year in Phoenix history is 143, which occurred in 1989.
The top-ten hottest Phoenix days article was “originally published on Aug 4, 2011” according to the web-page.
I mention this because there may have been hotter days since then, but more interestingly because six of the ten record years occur in the six year span from 1989 to 1995, with four of them occurring in the single year 1990, not during the last decade at all.
However, the NASA data deals with global mean temperatures (annual and five-year moving mean), not Phoenix daily high temperatures.
https://phoenix.about.com/cs/weather/a/weathertrivia_2.htm
Here near the GWTP, a new record for consecutive days over 95 …. and a week’s worth (for many) with no electricity.
Nah, commie, liberal plot.
phxSUNSfan wrote:
“Emil, from what I remember “global cooling” gasses are mostly aerosols. For instance: clouds (water droplets), smoke, ash, and smog. Nitrous oxide is another aerosol that in great quantity has an albedo effect in the atmosphere.”
Found this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerosol#Effect_on_climate
Also note the difference between water droplets and water vapor: the latter is actually a greenhouse gas (the largest component of greenhouse gases, but not appreciably affected one way or another by man-made processes):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas#Role_of_water_vapor
How much methane does a presidential campaign add to the atmosphere.
When these two yahoos are blowing it out of both ends, it has to add up.
Looks like I seriously screwed up my analysis of Hispanic voter eligibility in Arizona in a recent thread. For a correction and update, click here:
https://.typepad.com/rogue_columnist/2012/06/supremes-sb1070-open-thread.html
Want to talk about a heat wave?
Jan Brewer is really starting to piss me off.
We have a governor who’s entire claim to fame is that she was a receptionist at her husband’s chiropractic office.
AND we have a governor-wanna-bee (Bennett) who’s only claim to fame is that his son shoved broomsticks up kids butts.
Somebody wake me up. This isn’t for real is it??
While we ruminate about;kpoiuytrewq
“Scuse me for reverting to cryptography. We’re beyond “opinions”, folks. While we dither around about climate change, we should also know that there’s a large body of peer-reviewed science where over 90% of the scientists agree that we’re headed in the wrong direction. If anybody’s interested, I’ll tap into it. There are a few deniers left but they’re most. often in the pocket of the fossil fuel interests.
Ah com on cleanmoreair take a deep bresthe
its been fun!
Try this master website:
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/start-here/
The best writing on climate change for a general audience I’ve run across is by Elizabeth Kolbert, especially a New Yorker series a few years ago. We also have a separate section for it on the Rogue home page.
Perhaps it was hasty to say that I “seriously” screwed up my analysis of Hispanic voter registration in the other thread.
I wrote:
“(After accounting for age, citizenship status, and elective disenfranchisement from felony convictions) we’ve rendered fully 3/5 of Arizona Hispanics ineligible to vote.”
Pew, which takes age and citizenship status, but not legal disenfranchisement into effect, wrote in 2010 (re 2008 data):
“Some 39% of Latinos in Arizona
are eligible to vote, ranking Arizona 23rd nationwide in the share of the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote. In contrast, 79% of the state’s white population is eligible to vote.”
So, in fact I was broadly correct: 3/5 is 60 percent, and only 39 percent of Arizona Hispanics are eligible, the other 61 percent being either under 18 or non-citizens.
Even if all eligible Hispanics (Pew said 766,000) were registered, instead of the 400,000 plus that were actually registered at the time, this would still only be 18.2 percent of all eligible Arizona voters (4.2 million according to Pew).
Even using Phoenix New Times’ more current figure of 850,000 eligible Hispanic voters, and assuming that non-Hispanic eligibles haven’t grown, and keeping the 4.2 million total eligibles figure, that’s only 20.2 percent of Arizona voters.
Looking over New Times’ story, a bigger problem than voter registration may be low participation rates by already registered Hispanic voters.
“cal Lash” wrote:
“I have in the last 62 years been able to step outside and get a pretty good handle on the weather. In the last 10 years I have also been able to discern that there is something different about the planet than my first 62 years before that.”
The problem with this is that it depends on a set of memories that are subject to suggestion. Climate change deals with very small changes in temperature, even over a decade, and the last decade is no exception even though it has been hotter.
Such memories might be subject to a bias effect resulting from reading about global warming combined with the occasional heat wave, and so forth.
The memories themselves would involve quite subtle perceptions of complex sensations (relatively small daily and seasonal variations in high temperatures) that, at the time, you paid no particular attention to, because weather is background.
Incidentally, has anyone considered the effects of deforestation (which has been extensive since 1975) in global warming? Trees absorb carbon dioxide and emit oxygen.
I first read about the return of trees to earth in the 1946 book CITY by Clifford Simak.
and thanks
Emil but I will stick with going outside to check the weather.
I have no inclination to check the weather channel
Here’s my memory that can be airily dismissed. When I was young, the summers were not as long or as hot. The storms were not as violent. We certainly didn’t have these kind of forest fires and wildfires. I heard nothing about such things from family members, and the collective family memory went back to the 19th century.
ASU research establishes beyond question that overnight lows have increased some 10 degrees over that time. This really matters. And this is only the “local warming” caused by the replacement of agriculture by subdivisions, malls, wide streets, concrete everywhere and surface parking lots.
Just wait.
Deforestation. I like the pictorial suggestion of what NY looked like 400 years ago.
intresting read from Harpers
Broken Heartland by Wil S Hylton
But Sigourney Weaver is off to a better planet
now that Hal and David have got married.
Emil said, “The problem with this is that it depends on a set of memories that are subject to suggestion.” Absolutely right on.
I offer as proof the perfume test in a professors class. Everyone smelled the perfume to the point one had to open the windows. The perfume was of course, “WATER”
U can read the full text in the current issue of ADBUSTERS.
The leader in the coming 4th major historical change in how the planet will be run.
This has been a great conversation.
Only two minor loose ends to tie up.
Have ten billion people live on the food that seven billion people are currently consuming.
Have four billion people put off entering the industrialized world so they won’t add to the pollution created by the first few billion who got there first.
Shouldn’t be a problem.
Even Emil probably doesn’t agree with George Will:
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/08/george-will-heat-wave-summer-climate-change-global-warming_n_1657504.html
Tomorrow, I’ll have something he can really sink his research chops into. Heads up to Rate Crimes, too.
Mr. Talton wrote:
“ASU research establishes beyond question that overnight lows have increased some 10 degrees over that time” (since he was young).
Can you give me a link for that? According to the NOAA (whence ASU gets much of its temperature data) the increase in Phoenix lows (ten year average) from the 1940s to the 2000s was 7 degrees Farenheit. If the last four to six years added another three degrees to the decadal average that would be a bad sign.
From “HEAT WAVES IN A HOT PLACE: EXAMINATION OF INTENSE HEAT EPISODES IN THE PHOENIX ARIZONA METROPOLITAN AREA DURING JULY 2003-2005-2006” by
G. Douglas Green, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Phoenix, Arizona. Note that these are degrees Celsius: I took the increase in Celsius degrees and multiplied by 1.8 to get the increase in Farenheit degrees:
Years……..High Low Average
1941-1950 40.1 25.5 32.8
1951-1960 39.7 25.9 32.8
1961-1970 40.6 25.8 33.2
1971-1980 41.3 27.6 34.4
1981-1990 41.1 28.2 34.6
1991-2000 40.8 27.9 34.4
2001-2006 41.8 29.4 35.6
The biggest decadal change in temperature occurred between 1961-1970 and 1971-1980, when overnight low temperature rose 1.8 C (3.2 F) while average temperature rose 1.2 C (2.2 F). The hottest decade, in terms of average high temperature, occurred during 1971-1980; however, that record is in jeopardy, given how warm the first six years of the current decade have been.
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:VkWwyeep9NgJ:https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/124704.pdf+phoenix+arizona+daily+low+temperature+1960&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESjxFTO4k74Nhh4ZhgoaXEnDYB_SYbm26VzZVmVAA1BIL6otJgMdu6dGgFU_CwYGv3zb3LymB6RuVN2FN_4mQJpPorOYn5JeF8auhJR1SZLd4Ys4brIpQAKxxQlX4g1DYmO3Mj4q&sig=AHIEtbSv7cp6guqudBNZ9qd073CFWiCWXg
Note that the daily high (decadal average) increased by about 3 Fahrenheit degrees from the 1940s to the middle 2000s.
Sorry about that non-working link. I can’t seem to pull the (much shorter) direct PDF link, but just go here and click on “Extended Abstract” to get the identical paper referenced above:
https://ams.confex.com/ams/22WAF18NWP/techprogram/paper_124704.htm
Here’s a tidbit that’s sure to get Mr. Talton’s blood boiling. From a recent news article about attempts to establish a rail yard with state trust land:
“Union Pacific wants to buy the site from the Arizona State Land Department, something observers say could happen early next year.
“…No other prospective buyer has expressed interest in the property, State Land Commissioner Maria Baier said. But that doesn’t mean a sale is necessarily the best option.
“…The Land Department is bound by law to get the best value for land it auctions. It’s required to seek buyers offering the highest and best use of state-owned land. The proceeds go into a trust, which provides the lion’s share of its profits to public education.
“Red Rock is not a traditional sale, Baier said. More commonly, before the real-estate bubble, auctions were generally won by big developers buying land on the edge of metropolitan Phoenix for master-planned communities.”
https://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2012/07/01/20120701picacho-peak-train-yard-sought.html
Wow! The cat is out of the bag. This was mentioned casually, not even the focus of the article. Am I a naif not to know that “traditional” state land trust auctions facilitated exurban “master-planned communities”, or is Mr. Talton surprised, too?
The Land Department is “required to seek buyers offering the highest and best use of state-owned land”.
Wow. Sorry about the redundancy, I just don’t get the opportunity to fish-slap Rogue readers that often.
https://media.photobucket.com/image/fish%20slap/allica05/SnopesStuff/FishSlap.jpg
Emil ! You made a joke.
( : – )
As usual Emil delivers the hard facts while I deliver the general observations.
As I remember, during the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s storm cells would barrel in from the south and plow right through the valley, dust and rain all around.
Now you can watch these cells on radar, just as big and ornery as ever, however around Maricopa, they suddenly veer off to the east or west as they hit the edge of the heat island. We get some of the dust, but the rain passes us by.
Old days, 10 cells, 10 storms hit the valley.
Now, 10 cells, maybe 1 storm reaches the valley.
Monsoon?? More like Monlater.
I kept reading in the Arizona Republic that the cost to the state from “Obamacare” was going to be (variously) $210 million or $250 million in its first operative year, according to the state legislature.
Where the heck did this $210 million in state costs come from? The Medicaid expansion (from 100% to 133% of the federal poverty level) is 100% federally subsidized through 2016, thereafter decreasing to 90% in 2020 (and staying the same thereafter). So, even after 2020, the state cost is only 10% of the expansion.
Here’s the explanation (and my analysis):
https://www.azleg.gov/jlbc/ACAreport062912_2.pdf
It appears that the feds pay 100% of the adult additions in the Medicaid expansion, but that the state pays the usual 1/3 of the cost for children added under this, for a cost of $27.7 million.
The rest is hooey: according to the state legislature, “The greater media attention on federal health care and the requirements for the uninsured to acquire health insurance (or pay a penalty) is expected to incentivize already eligible non-participants to sign up for coverage…This possible incentive factor is the single largest component of the ACA cost estimate. If ACA encourages 50% of the currently eligible non-participants to enroll, it would cost $232 million and add 133,000 new participants.”
In other words, the media talking about insurance and health care will cause those currently eligible for Medicaid (with incomes at 100% or less of the poverty level), but not enrolled, to enroll. Even if true, this would be the case whether or not the state accepts the expansion of Medicaid from 100% to 133% of the federal poverty level. The state’s costs will be unaffected by its acceptance or rejection of the expansion.
So far, the only actual cost to the state is the $28 million.
“Arizona’s federal waiver requires the state to end the childless adult enrollment freeze in January 2014 when the ACA expansion takes effect. Until that time, the state is allowing no new childless adults to enroll in the Proposition 204 program. Ending the enrollment freeze is projected to cost $166 million and restore coverage to 116,000 individuals on a full year basis. The legislation, however, requires the federal government to pay 85% of the cost of the childless adult population (and the federal match grows in subsequent years). Since this rate is higher than the current 66% federal match, the state would lower its costs for existing participants by $(217) million. The additional cost of $166 million from ending the enrollment freeze would be offset by the match rate savings of $(217) million for a net savings of $(51) million.”
So, this actually saves the state a net $51 million. So far, the state is actually AHEAD by $23 million.
That’s it: $28 million plus $232 million minus $51 million = $210 million (rounding errors)
But the supposed $232 million cost from additional, currently eligible Medicaid sign-ups, is not affected by the state’s acceptance or rejection of the Medicaid expansion (the one provision of the ACA which the U.S. Supreme Court ruled could not be enforced by federal arm-twisting involving already existing Medicaid funds).
Can you believe that the Arizona Republic failed to report this in the TWO stories they ran mentioning state costs when the Supreme Court decision was announced, and have yet to run a follow-up story explaining this?
Is this political, or are they just incompetent? You would think that some of the three journalists involved in those two stories would have checked this out. Is the editor squelching this on the (expresed or unexpressed) orders of the conservative owners/execs?
I am shocked…SHOCKED!!!
Emil,
I wish I could say that I followed your numbers, but I didn’t. However, I get the gist of your explanation which raises your question “what the heck is going on here”?
Is it political? Sure it is.
The conservative/republican philosophy of life dictates that their followers worship life from conception until the child leaves the birth canal. Once outside the mother that child is to be reviled and treated as a useless, helpless sponge who seeks only to siphon money away from the gods…the job CREATORS).
Maybe reptilian republicans like brewer, horne, pearce, sheriff Ourpile hate us because our children are live born.
There is no other explanation for their beliefs on the fetus to baby transformation.
Good reporting, Emil. I can’t speak to this instance, but in general one of the biggest problems is the loss of highly trained and seasoned specialty reporters. It takes 10 years to make a good business reporter, for example. Newspapers today won’t make that investment. In addition, the blogosphere is full of bad information and falsehoods are fed to reporters in a hurry.
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