Not quite blue

Not quite blue

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I watched tensely on Monday night as NBC News, CNN, and finally the Associated Press called the Arizona governor’s race, with Katie Hobbs winning over Kari Lake. She will become the first Democratic governor here since Janet Napolitano.

But it was a close run thing, as the Duke of Wellington said of his triumph over Napoleon at Waterloo. Hobbs won by a mere 18,551 votes.

How could this be? Hobbs was Secretary of State, former state representative and state senator, a Phoenix native, very well qualified to be governor. Kari Lake was a former newsreader for the local Fox television station. She has no government or executive experience at all, was Trump anointed, an election denier, spreader of COVID disinformation, claiming President Biden had “a demonic agenda,” and one-time Democrat. She called for putting Hobbs and journalists in jail (sound familiar?). Yet nearly 1.23 million voters were willing to go with her.

The answer lies in Arizona still being a hotspot of the Trump cult — the party of Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Barry Goldwater, Ronald Reagan, and John McCain is dead. Props to McCain for choosing Sarah Palin, a proto-Lake, as his running mate in 2008.

 

Vote like your life depends on it

Vote like your life depends on it

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Carl Muecke illustration.

Because of Typepad problems I am late in posting this urgent plea.

Vote like your life depends on it. Don't believe the polls. Some are fake. All risk dampening Democratic turnout.

Vote like your life depends on it. If Republicans win one or both Houses of Congress next week, you won't recognize this country next year.

Vote like your life depends on it because today’s GOP is a radical nihilistic cult worshipping Donald Trump. Its the party of Ginni Thomas, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Ron DeSantis, Herschel Walker…of election deniers, those who would dismantle the safety net, privatize Social Security, switch Medicare to inadequate vouchers, and abandon Ukraine.

Vote like your life depends on it because there are no moderate Republicans.

Living with drought

Living with drought

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My new Gene Hammons Novel (a mystery due out in the next year or two) is set in 1936. In my research, I found that much of the Midwest and South suffered from a terrible drought, which claimed thousands of lives (separate from the Dust Bowl). But Arizona had plenty of rain that year — temperatures were also lower than today — and Phoenix was protected by the dams and reservoirs on the Salt River. And therein lies a tale.

 The population of Arizona was around 443,000 — fewer than live in today's Mesa. Phoenix clocked in at 55,000 or do, double that for the metropolitan area (remember, the city then was only around 17 square miles). Had today's mega-drought hit then, Phoenix would have been fine. Even with climate change.

But population growth has long been the primary driver of Phoenix's leadership. On the flag of the Arizona Republic in 1936 was a bug headlined "How Phoenix Grows!" listing population increases and building permits (The "flag" is the name of the paper atop the front page; the "masthead" lists the newspapers leadership, typically on the editorial page). So as of 2020, Arizona's population is 7.2 million, with Phoenix the nation's fifth most populous city — though far from No. 5 in other measures of quality and influence.

What did I miss?

What did I miss?

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Carl Muecke illustration

Thanks for your patience. The novel is now completed and will be soon sent to the publisher. A few quick thoughts:

• It's astounding that the former local Fox newsreader Kari "Trump in a Dress" Lake stands a good chance of becoming Arizona's next governor. Or not. I've been skeptical of Arizona becoming a purple, much less blue state. For one thing, the GOP-controlled Legislature passed voter suppression laws, as I warned. And Hispanics are not a monolithic voting bloc. They don't want police defunded. Many are suspicious of woke Democratic virtue posturing.

• It's astounding that Republicans — the Party that Broke America with the Iraq war, Great Recession, and Trump — remain not only relevant but favored to win control of one or both houses of Congress. Trump could win the presidency again, in our last election. When Herbert Hoover and the GOP were blamed for the Great Depression (where I've been living writing the second Gene Hammons novel), the Republicans didn't win the White House for 20 years, and then under the moderate Ike. Not now.

• Similar astounding that Trump and his enablers have faced no consequences for the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. Lake is an election denier.

Read on about this blog and its future:

 

Death and life of Sunbelt cities

Death and life of Sunbelt cities

Downtown Phoenix 2020
 
By Soleri
Guest Columnist
 
I hadn't been to Phoenix in several years, so my trip a couple of weeks ago was animated as much by curiosity as it was the desire to see old friends. I did know the city had more than recovered from the previous housing crash. Indeed, it was booming again. A dozen years ago, I predicted Phoenix would never recover from the crash. I don't like eating crow but if it's the sole item on the menu, so be it.
 
Much of what I did see made that crow taste better. Phoenix looked much healthier than when I moved to Portland in 2013.  The downtown had filled in with new high-rise apartment buildings and crowded clubs. The activity at night, in particular, was heartening to see.
 
What I didn't see were the thousands of "unhoused" mentally ill drug addicts who have turned much of Portland into a dystopian hellscape. Yes, street people were on the sidewalks of downtown Phoenix, but without the trash, tents, and drug paraphernalia that have so deeply damaged Portland. Phoenix is relatively litter-free and unmarred by graffiti.
 
Maybe it's the weather, or maybe it's because its political center of gravity is simply not in far-left field.

A Christmas letter

A Christmas letter

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Illustrations by Carl Muecke

Here we are, hurtling toward a Democratic shellacking in 2022. And based on the voter suppression laws being passed by Republican-controlled legislatures around the country, they may never be in power again. For example, the Arizona Legislature has stripped the Secretary of State of the ability to certify elections. Now the Legislature itself will decide electors — here comes Trump in 2024.

IMG-6335Electoral success depends on quick results by the Democrats, not only on infrastructure (which Trump never delivered) but also rebuilding the social-safety net and addressing climate change. Instead, the monstrous Sen. Joe Manchin has torpedoed much of President Biden's agenda. West Virginia is among the poorest states in the nation. It one of the biggest beneficiaries of Biden's Build Back Better programs, but no. Manchin revels in being essentially shadow president. The razor-thin Senate Democratic majority that leaves so much power in the hands of Manchin and Arizona's Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Both should be Republicans for the damage they did. They are anything but centrists. But let's not forget the Democrat's self-inflicted wounds.

These are nicely encapsulated on Andrew Sullivan's Substack column. (It's well worth a subscription). Here's some of the salient points Sullivan makes:

Grant Woods, an appreciation

Grant Woods, an appreciation

Grant Woods

The spontaneous outpouring of grief on news of Grant Woods' death at 67, too too young, is a measure of the man. We'll never see the same for Doug Ducey or Kyrsten Sinema or almost any Arizona pol you can name. Something similar might happen for Janet Napolitano or Terry Goddard, but this is an elite club.

Woods and I became friends when I returned to Phoenix in 2000 as a columnist for the Arizona Republic. A graduate of Mesa's Westwood High, we had long-running jokes because I had graduated from rival Coronado High in Scottsdale. He was a valuable off-the-record source and I knew the score. He'd already been ridden out of the Republican Party as a RINO. The state party had been radicalized since he was Attorney General from 1990 to 1999.

He was an outlier from the start, forcing the eccentric Bob Corbin from the primary and emphasizing civil rights, including a Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. Gov. Evan Mecham had repealed his predecessor, Bruce Babbitt's holiday proclamation in 1987. The holiday didn't become state law until 1992.

How to read the news

How to read the news

Az Republic Jan. 1 1958

Penelope Abernathy at the University of North Carolina has been tracking the expansion of "news deserts" in the United States — counties with no local newspapers at all, and those with only one. Even the survivors are hanging on.

U.S. newspapers lost 48 percent of their journalists between 2008 and 2018, and the losses are now accelerated by the pandemic. More than 1,800 newspapers have closed since 2004. Arizona newspaper circulation dropped by 37% between 2004 and 2019. The Arizona Republic's circulation fell from nearly half a million at the turn of the century — 10th largest daily in the country — to 68,000 daily as of 2023. The Seattle Times is now the second-largest newspaper on the West Coast — larger than San Diego or San Francisco's newspapers.

Much of this this is because of the collapse of the old business model because of Craig's List and self-inflicted wounds. The trends reach further back. Circulation of all dailies peaked at more than 63 million in 1989. It was down to 46 million by 2009, then 26 million by 2020.

Many newspapers are now being sucked dry by hedge-fund owners. As a result, the most experienced journalists are being pushed out. What's left are cub reporters while institutional knowledge is lost. The alternative is television news/entertainment, which is typically a shooting, an auto collision, and Heather-with-the-weather. (An honorable exception is Brahm Resnik at 12 News, a newspaper-trained newsman).

Meanwhile, a gray area of news also exists. In Phoenix, this includes Cronkite News out of ASU, KJZZ, and AZ Big Media. Flagstaff and Tucson are served by Arizona Public Media. Each of these have plusses and minuses.

This situation has profound implications for a self-governing society. Only real journalism exposes corruption, shines a light on self-serving politicians, explains complicated issues, and knits together civil society. Let's look at how to read the news — I've been a reporter, editor, and columnist for nearly four decades.

Ground zero II

Ground zero II

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Carl Muecke illustration

In Phoenix this past weekend, Trump said, "If I lost the election, I could handle it pretty easily. But when they steal it from you and rig it, that’s not easy, and we have to fight!"

The location and big-lie language are no random coincidence. For the past several months the Republican-controlled state Senate has been conducting an "audit" of Maricopa County ballots. The goal is to show the presidential election was stolen here from Trump (When Fox "News" called Arizona for Biden, something approved by Rupert Murdoch himself, Trump exploded).

The "stolen election" and the January 6th insurrection to prevent the results from being certified by Congress, is a national Republican narrative. But, as with climate change, Arizona is ground zero.

The deeper consequence of the "audit" is to kneecap Arizona from turning purple or blue. It sets a blueprint by which any future election that goes Democratic can be challenged and even reversed. No wonder Republicans from other states have been watching closely and trying to install their own "audits."

It's not the only way Republicans are working to ensure they maintain power, whatever the changing demographics and politics of the nation.

Ground zero

Ground zero

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Have you noticed how many stories are generated out of Phoenix and Arizona by big national news organizations, including the New York Times, Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times? This is a big change from the days when we operated in relative obscurity. It is also no coincidence.

For one thing, the state is so different from the one I grew up in: 1.3 million population in 1960 vs. 7.2 million in 2020. Arizona was the 35th most populous state in the union in 1960. Now No. 14 — the third largest in the West — and Phoenix is the fifth most populous city. With size comes scrutiny.

But more important is that many of the crises of the future are being played out here. Climate change. Border pressures. Demographic shifts. The crisis of political legitimacy and our experiment in self-government. We have a front-row seat and are players. Yes, I'm happy for the Suns (and that the arena contract requires the team to keep the city name) and for the center-city infill. Happy for light rail (WBIYB).

But all is not well. Indeed, it's shocking how dark the future looks — and Arizona is ground zero.

The state of the state

The state of the state

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Carl Muecke illustration

For all the talk about Arizona being flipped from red to blue, or at least purple, the reality on the ground is far different. That's because the most powerful branch of government, the Legislature, remains under Republican control — as it has for decades. The same situation is at work in the governor's office, where Doug Ducey is in his (term-limited) final stretch.

The most obvious result has been the "audit" of Maricopa County ballots, ordered by the Republican-run state Senate. Even if it eventually "validates" the election of Joe Biden as president, it has become a template for Republicans around the country and for any future elections they lose. It's hard to overstate the menace this presents to our experiment in self-government.

At the same time, the Legislature pressed two dozen voter suppression bills, intended to ensure that they continue to rule — widespread voting is the enemy of Republicans. One crafty measure will automatically purge by-mail voters who do not vote every two years. This happened even with mail voting widely popular in the state. Ducey took only a few hours before signing it into law.

Meanwhile, the body blows keep coming with such ferocity that it's difficult to keep up (see the daily headline links under "Phoenix and Arizona" to the left. The challenge is compounded by the hollowing out of local newspapers.

Degrading by degrees

Degrading by degrees

Glendale CC
When the Republican-controlled Legislature isn't busy with voter suppression laws or bills to further the National Rifle Association wish list, it can still make time for brilliance such as this: Allowing community colleges to award four-year degrees.

Legislation to make this possible has passed the state House, the furthest it's gotten in years of being repeatedly introduced. It might pass the Senate. Moving the proposal this far required compromises with the Board of Regents. As Howard Fischer of the Capitol Media Service reported:

The colleges can’t just get into the business. Instead, it requires studies to determine if the colleges, supported largely with local tax dollars, can hire the necessary faculty and sustain the programs. There also has to be a determination that the degrees offered will meet needed fields and whether they would “unnecessarily duplicate” programs already offered elsewhere. And there’s no authority for new property taxes.

There’s an extra hurdle in HB 2523 for the colleges in Pima and Maricopa counties. They could initially offer only a limited number of four-year degrees, defined as no more than 10% of total degrees offered for the first four years and 15% for years five and beyond.

The new pintos

The new pintos

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I operate the Arizona History Shop for journalists, amateur historians, and curious civilians — free and an email or phone call away. It's sometimes shocking how little Arizona's millions know about their (mostly adopted) state. The situation is even more startling with the East Coast media.

Today's exhibit is a story in the New Republic. Headline: "Arizona’s Democratic Senators Are Already Angering the Left." Subhed: "The activists who sent Mark Kelly and Kyrsten Sinema to Washington aren’t happy with their early moves in office." Kelly and Sinema voted for an amendment that would prohibit undocumented immigrants from receiving pandemic stimulus checks. TNR reports:

Latino advocates aren’t happy about it. “We are extremely disappointed by the vote that they have taken to strip stimulus funds from immigrants in the Covid stimulus bill,” Hector Sanchez Barba, executive director of the Phoenix-based group Mi Familia Vota says. “So we are sending a clear message, early in the game with a new administration, that this is unacceptable. We immediately mobilized our people on the ground, we immediately reached out, but we’re going to use all the political capital that we have. We’re going to use everything that we’ve been building in terms of political power to keep all the politicians accountable.”

Color Arizona

Color Arizona

Arizona_Capitol_Museum_2014. Gage Skidmore
Joe Biden won Arizona. But, as the Duke of Wellington said of the Battle of Waterloo, "it was the nearest run thing you ever saw in your life." Biden prevailed with about 11,000 votes, or 0.3 percentage points, over the most criminal and dangerous president in American history.

Mark Kelly's victory in the Senate race was easier to foresee. Kelly is a former combat pilot and NASA astronaut, as well as husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, who was the victim of an assassination attempt.

Martha McSally, his opponent, had already lost a Senate race to Kyrsten Sinema and was appointed Senator by Gov. Doug Ducey in a cynical partisan attempt to give her the advantage. Didn't work, Doug. For the first time since 1952, Arizona has two Democratic U.S. Senators. Otherwise, of the nine congressional districts in the state Democratic incumbents won five.

So does Arizona become a "magenta state," as the New York Times put it? Not quite.

Despite heavy Democratic turnout and Latino activism, Republicans maintained control over the Legislature. More about this later.