Suffer the children

The latest scandal involving Arizona's Child Protective Services agency involves thousands of abuse and neglect reports that were not investigated.

I don't have much to add to the able reporting of Mary Jo Pitzl and Mary K. Reinhart at the Arizona Republic. This includes a year-long series.

Not much to add, but a little context.

This is what happens when you spend decades cutting the state budget, even as population and need grows, as part of worshipping the god of small gub'ment.

State spending as a percent of personal income in Arizona fell from 5 percent in fiscal 1994 to 3.5 percent for fiscal 2014. CPS has been underfunded for decades as the state added huge population, especially in vulnerable groups.

The starting salary for a caseworker is a little more than $33,000 — and he or she get to be vilified as a public employee, never mind the crushing case load.

So when you read or hear of failures such as Child Protective Services, just remember: Your tax cuts at work.

Election postmortem

The mainsteam media looked at Tuesday's results and see big trouble for Democrats.

In Virginia, Clintonista and former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe outspent his opponent, state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, by three-to-two and only won by 2.5 percentage points. In New Jersey, Republican Gov. Chris Christie won a commanding victory in a blue state.

In this narrative, the president looms large. Obamacare suffered a troubled rollout. His approval rating has hit a new low. Unstated: He's black.

Progressives shouldn't whistle past the graveyard, but I'm not sure how much this is true.

For example, Virginia held the capital of the old Confederacy and is not a swing state anyone should count on. Some experts like to see the Old Dominion and North Carolina as at least potentially purple states. I'm not so sure.

District 4

[UPDATE: As of 9:30 p.m. MST Tuesday, Pastor held a 498 vote lead over Johnson and counting may continue until Friday]

The race for Phoenix City Council District 4 might seem like small ball for this blog, but it tells us much about where Phoenix stands and where it is going.

One candidate is Laura Pastor, daughter of Rep. Ed Pastor, without whose efforts we would not have a popular light-rail system (WBIYB*). The other is Justin Johnson, son of former Mayor Paul Johnson. (Another race pits Kate Widland Gallego against the Rev. Warren Stewart, but for simplicity's sake, I will focus on District 4).

The contest has been distinguished by mudslinging, with Pastor, for example, being compared with Paris Hilton — and a remarkable lack of substance.

Scandal for schools

Last week, two items came my way. I learned that Andre Goodfriend, my buddy from grade-school days, has become the United States chargé d'affaires, or deputy chief of mission, at our embassy in Budapest, Hungary. Meanwhile, it was reported that enrollment in the Phoenix Union High School District reached a 36-year high.

The district is 80 percent Hispanic and only 5 percent Anglo. As recently as 1990, the demographics were 41 percent Anglo and 40 percent Hispanic. Some 81 percent of students qualify for free or reduced-price lunches — and based on my research, this is often the only meal some of them receive in a day.

What these tidings have in common is the scandalous trajectory of failure in our public education system.

This is a huge topic, and I recommend Diane Ravitch's Rein of Error and The Death and Life of the Great American School System for anyone seeking some of the best examinations of the topic by one of our great scholar-advocates. My aims are more modest.

The nostalgia rap

I was made aware of this recent conversation. My name came up, and an Influential Person said, "But he hates Arizona." The other person responded: "No, he actually likes it quite a bit." Influential person: "OK, but he's blinded by nostalgia."

Nostalgia has its appeal. Indeed, it can be healthy, as an article in the New York Times recently pointed out:

Nostalgia has been shown to counteract loneliness, boredom and anxiety.
It makes people more generous to strangers and more tolerant of
outsiders. Couples feel closer and look happier when they’re sharing
nostalgic memories. On cold days, or in cold rooms, people use nostalgia
to literally feel warmer.

Nostalgia does have its painful side — it’s a bittersweet emotion — but
the net effect is to make life seem more meaningful and death less
frightening. When people speak wistfully of the past, they typically
become more optimistic and inspired about the future.

“Nostalgia makes us a bit more human,” Dr. Sedikides says. He considers
the first great nostalgist to be Odysseus, an itinerant who used
memories of his family and home to get through hard times, but Dr.
Sedikides emphasizes that nostalgia is not the same as homesickness.
It’s not just for those away from home, and it’s not a sickness, despite
its historical reputation.

But nostalgia is not what attracts people to Rogue Columnist, why traffic here keeps growing every month, or why people — even the Kooks — consider this a must-read.

The Friday saloon

The big, big Phoenix story is the resignation of City Manager David Cavazos, who is leaving to accept the same position in Santa Ana, Calif. Everyone is pleading surprise. This is almost certainly not true. Cavazos put out a prepared statement that was both graciously restrained and yet also appeared to be highly lawyered. There may prove to be much more to this than meets the eye.

With the local paper continuing to lay off people and institutional knowledge fading, here are a few pieces of important background. The council/manager form of government is one of Phoenix's proudest achievements, having done away with the corruption not only of cities "back East" but also old Phoenix. The council sets policy and the manager implements it, running the city from day-to-day. The mayor is a relatively weak position and one vote on council. Once a person assumes the purple of the city manager, he is expected to serve for many years. Frank Fairbanks, who Cavazos succeeded in 2009, served for two decades. One simply doesn't walk away, and certainly not to little Santa Ana (pop. 329,427). So this is a bombshell even if there's nothing more to it. If there is, it's explosive, including for Mayor Greg Stanton.

There was a stupidly nasty fight over giving Cavazos a raise to bring his pay up to $315,000. The next largest city with a council/manager form, San Antonio, pays a base $355,000 to Sheryl Sculley, the capable former deputy city manager in Phoenix who was shown the glass ceiling by Phil Gordon and the firefighters union (over an old grudge). The council is more divided and kooky now, more small ball. A sense of stagnation is felt, although the light rail extension is happening (WBIYB). The Legislature has made life even more difficult for cities. Phoenix is struggling relative to the prosperous suburbs. The Phoenix polity is much more limited compared with the other most populous cities. Any of these — or the blowback from previous controversies — could have driven Cavazos to leave at the prime of his professional life. Also, he was caught up in the minor expense-account scandal in the mid-2000s. I always wondered if Cavazos had the chops for the job, not to mention the quiet, genial ruthlessness of Frank Fairbanks.

The immigration con

The immigration con

BorderJeep
A smuggler's Jeep found stuck on the border fence near Yuma in 2012.

As I write, here are some of the latest headlines: "Looming Budget Fight Could Doom Immigration Reform"; "Cecilia Munoz: Quarterback of Obama's Immigration Reform Efforts," and "Immigration Reform Supporters Ask for Help From Businesses."

Does any serious person believe there was ever a chance for "sweeping immigration reform," as it was called with a repetition of a bubblegum rock station playlist? I know, I know: This was how the GOP would save itself from extinction as demographic trends appear to shift against old, bitter, suburban and rural white people. Thus, at least in the minds of the oblivious D.C. pundits depicted with such savage accuracy in the new book This Town, wealthy Republican Sen. John Sidney McCain III would reclaim his mantle as a statesman, a maverick, and herd his party to a deal with President Obama.

But this failed the smell test from the start. Even McCain, who at certain points in his career had favored immigration reform (when he didn't and vice versa), kept prattling on about "a secure border" being the foundational element of any deal. After an amendment to the so-called Gang of Eight's immigration bill in the Senate, McCain said, "We'll be the most militarized border since the fall of the Berlin Wall." It says something about today's pretzel of a Republican Party that the once despised symbol of oppression ("Mister Gorbachev, tear down this wall!") is now offered as reassurance against an invasion of Brown People. And all that to get a deal that would somehow raise Republican favorables among voting Brown People. Next step: President Rubio!

Young men and fire

Young men and fire

Smokejumpers
Unless we are willing to escape into sentimentality or fantasy, often the best we can do with catastrophes, even our own, is to find out exactly what happened…
— Norman Maclean 

Smokejumpers and other wildfire-fighters call them "shake and bakes," the portable shelters they carry. These cocoons of foil and fiberglas offer the firefighters at best a 50%  chance of survival and are deployed as a last resort, as when the wind shifts and the living devil of fire traps and turns on them.

The hope is that the fire will pass over quickly. Otherwise, "the only thing your shake and bake will do is allow you to have an open-casket funeral,” one crew supervisor told Wired. Such dark humor is a necessary component of dangerous, sometimes deadly jobs. The Prescott Fire Department's Granite Mountain Hotshots team reportedly deployed its shake-and-bakes Sunday in a conflagration at Yarnell, amid triple-digit temperatures and high winds. Nineteen died. As I write, the fire is at zero containment.

This is the deadliest event for wildfire-fighters in modern history. Deadlier than Colorado's South Canyon fire in 1994 on Storm King Mountain. Deadlier than the 1949 Mann Gulch blaze in Montana, which inspired Norman Maclean's classic study, Young Men and Fire. a book both elegiac and forensically definitive.

Here is what I don't want: Cheap sentimentalizing and cynical religiosity from politicians who are otherwise hostile to public employees, adequate government budgets and sensible land-use policies. The ones who use public pensions and unions as evil hand-puppets to distract citizens from the screwing they are getting from the plutocrats. The tax cutters and climate-change "deniers."

Please spare me your sudden compassion for public servants and first responders. Spare me your flags and "USA! USA!" and endless evocation of "heroes" if this is mere denial and lazy thinking.

Look: I get the shock and grief. I used to be a first responder myself, cross-trained to deploy with forestry fire teams, and more than once was nearly killed (in the city). I know those men are with the Lord and all their tears have been dried, and I pray that their families are given comfort and grace. But I am not going to endlessly tweet this or post it on Facebook. We owe them more. Read on if you agree. This will not be a popular column. It is a necessary one.

Barry Goldwater

Barry Goldwater

Barry_at_31_1940

Barry Goldwater in 1941.

Phoenix would benefit from some heroic statues to enrich the downtown streetscape. It's not as if we're lacking in heroes and audacious history. Instead, we get a bronze of Barry Goldwater in Paradise Valley, unreachable by pedestrians but with an adjacent parking lot. Then there's terminal four at Sky Harbor named after Goldwater. And a street in Scottsdale. A newcomer might think the only history worth remembering, if badly painted, concerns the long-serving senator and 1964 presidential candidate.

Readers of this blog know better. But understanding Goldwater's place in Arizona is a daunting challenge. The magisterial biography remains to be written. And for most of his public career, Goldwater was a national figure. We must also contend with a good deal of nostalgia and hagiography concerning the hero. An example of the latter was a recent article in National Review about how Barry was a leader in Phoenix's school desegregation before the Brown decision. The former goes something like this: Barry was no Kook, he fought the religious right and one shouldn't conflate today's conservatism with that of Goldwater. Even I have been guilty. But the reality is more complex and interesting.

Field notes

Catching up from my recent visit "back home…"

• Many people asked me why Gov. Jan Brewer was backing a Medicaid expansion in apparent defiance of GOP orthodoxy. Has she finally shown a conscience? No. The major calculus is that what remains of the business leadership in Arizona leaned on her to accept the Obamacare/Romneycare deal, where the feds will pay for most of the expansion anyway. The biggest employers in Arizona provide no or minimal health-care coverage, so they offload (socialize) those costs to the public through AHCCCS. Among the big employers are health companies that profit from the system, and would make even more under an expansion.

Most of the New Confederacy is not participating, a calculated move to sabotage the Affordable Care Act. So why is Brewer different? My suspicion is the composition of the economy. The other populous, urbanized states have plenty of corporate headquarters and well-paid jobs (and in the case of Texas, oil and big government spending). So it's easy to say, "devil take the hindmost." In Arizona, the hindmost is the economy — Wal-Mart is the largest employer. That and health care. Of course, Brewer might simply be playing a game, knowing the Legislature will prevent Arizona's participation. But I think she's sincere. If she goes "Full Kook," the business interests might do an Ev Mecham on her.

Questions for Phoenix candidates

I received a query from a group called Democracy for America-Maricopa County asking me to suggest questions for Phoenix City Council candidates. I always try to be obliging, and this issue is of special importance.

It seems as if Council has lost its consensus and focus, virtues that were essential to the progress made with T-Gen, ASU's downtown campus, the Phoenix Convention Center and light rail (WBIYB). Nothing could be worse for the city than a right-wing takeover or blocking minority on Council. And members who think civic greatness is filling potholes and collecting trash ("listening to the neighborhoods) are not much better. Phoenix is at a critical tipping point. Here are the questions I suggested:

1. Please detail your connections to the real-estate
industry: Properties you own; do you work in the industry and if so,
doing what?; have you served on boards that make recommendations on land
use?; have you profited from land-use decisions made by public bodies,
including the approval and siting of freeways?

The ‘Goldwater’ Institute

When Hillary Clinton lashed out in 1998 at "the vast right-wing conspiracy," most people laughed. I certainly did. Then I returned to Phoenix two years later to see how correct she was. Exhibit A was the "Goldwater" Institute, motto: "Where freedom wins." Before he died, Barry wanted his name removed from the organization, but he backed off because it was dear to his brother. So I have always referred to it with Goldwater in quotes or as the Bob Goldwater Institute. Either way, it has played a pivotal role in damaging Arizona and holding back progress.

After its founding in 1988, local media accorded the institute respect as a "think tank." Robert Robb, a political operative who came out of the "Goldwater" Institute, was hired as an editorial columnist for the Arizona Republic. After the departure of Ricardo Pimentel and me, he became the only real editorial columnist after the 2007 newsroom organization. Unlike most entrusted with a position of such influence, Robb did not spend 20 years gaining experience and accolades as a journalist for a major newspaper. He was always a member of "the vast right-wing conspiracy." And the institute itself was regularly quoted in news stories as an authority on virtually every issue.

The trouble is that the "Goldwater" Institute is not a think tank as conventionally understood, an organization where scholars pursue research with open minds and produce material that is vigorously peer reviewed (think The Brookings Institution). Instead, it is an advocacy organization such as the NRA or the Sierra Club. It is rarely identified as such in the media — unless I am writing about it, which I try to avoid, aside from one takedown in the early 2000s.

Phoenix’s new normal

Let's take a random walk through the "news from home." Much rejoicing must have come to the Real Estate Industrial Complex from the recent BusinessWeek story headlined, "A Phoenix housing boom forms in hint of U.S. recovery." Maybe it's even real and Homey was wrong when he predicted that the old growth machine — with championship golf! — isn't coming back. If so, a new housing boom would be the worst possible event in the long run. Any chance to learn the lessons of the crash will be lost, along with the opportunity to reset for a more sustainable future.

I suspect the bluster of a "boom" cloaks a recovery from a very deep bottom, so naturally the percentage gains will look impressive. In addition, we don't have the research to indicate the subdivisions that are being abandoned to "investors" — or just abandoned — as qualified buyers snap up the new stuff from the likes of Pulte. Population has increased, but not at the rates of the 1990s and 2000s. Also, the labor force for the metropolitan area is only slightly larger than it was in 2006, hardly the spectacular growth seen in the previous decades.

Some macro realities will not go away: most Americans are much poorer after the recession; wages are stagnant and have been falling on average for years; unemployment remains high and many may never find work again; "consumers" are still carrying more debt than historic norms; changing tastes and demographics, with talented young people and many boomers preferring real cities, not Sun City; Phoenix still has a low-wage economy. All these factors will be headwinds against the triumphal return of the Growth Machine.

Arizona bio: part II

Arizona bio: part II

UACC

A rendering of the University of Arizona Cancer Center, set to break ground on the Phoenix Biomedical Campus.

A decade after Arizona, and especially Phoenix, embarked on an effort to build a biosciences cluster, this is how things stand. According to a report from the Battelle Institute, "Arizona’s bioscience industry continues to grow at a rapid rate.
Industry firms have increased employment by 30 percent overall since 2001 and have
even added jobs since 2007, a period which includes the deep national recession."

That said, total Arizona bioscience employment in 2010 was 21,084 vs. 62,386 in North Carolina. The state is a pygmy in research dollars and has birthed no significant bio company. Phoenix is nowhere near being one of the nation's top biotech/biosciences centers. [Updated] A 2012 Jones Lang LaSalle report ranks Boston, San Diego, the Bay Area, Raleigh-Durham, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., New York, Los Angeles and Seattle the top "established" clusters in the Americas. The "emerging" clusters are Westchester/New Haven, Conn., Chicago, Denver, Cleveland-Columbus-Cincinnati, Salt Lake City, Dallas, southern Wisconsin, Florida,  Indianapolis, southern Michigan and Atlanta. The top players are not much changed, aside from relative ranking, from a much-discussed 2004 assessment by the Milken Institute, with one exception. Minneapolis has moved into the "established" ranks. Most of the up-and-comers are new. Arizona and Phoenix are not mentioned.

A glimpse of the competition can be found by the jaw-dropping build-out of the University of California-San Francisco's Mission Bay campus, which is dedicated to bio and went from nothing to a major contender over the same decade. And this was achieved despite California's state budget crisis. It represents one path the Phoenix Biomedical Campus could have taken but didn't. Another is Houston's amazing Texas Medical Center. This is where I center my recollections of the bio effort and what succeeded and failed.

McCain of Arizona

The last time I saw John McCain in Phoenix he was stalking out of Arizona Center into the surface parking lot that used to stand behind the Arizona Republic building and I was on my way to see a movie at the AMC cinemas. He nodded. I said, "Senator." He stalked on. A good fifty feet behind were Cindy and a couple of his children. It was so shocking to see McCain in Arizona, much less downtown, that it made me momentarily take stock. Then I realized he was not supporting the central city — his local office, after all, is near 24th Street and Camelback. This was one of the few places where he could see a movie and not be bothered by constituents.

Wealthy Republican John Sidney McCain III has been on my mind after his vicious attacks on his former colleague, Chuck Hagel,  during the latter's confirmation hearing to be Secretary of Defense. Juan Cole wrote the hearing "was painful to watch because it displayed the tomfoolery, pretense, self-righteous know-nothingism, and embarrassing lack of contact with reality that dominate the landscape of America’s broken democracy. It was like watching a Nebraska ordinary Joe set upon by circus freaks– a phalanx of moral midgets, stalking cat-men, vicious lobster boys and
ethical werewolves." Foremost among them was McCain.

Much was written about how the two had been friends and were fellow Vietnam vets. In reality, I doubt McCain has any friends in the Senate, including his fawning pet Lindsey Graham. And Hagel was a mere ground-pounder, an Army sergeant. McCain was an admiral's son, an elite Naval Aviator.