Posted inPhoenix

I told you so

Every time the Arizona Republic's journalists manage to sneak in a story about the depression ravaging metro Phoenix, I am deluged with emails from people, telling me how "I called it" years ago — "You were so right." They are generous about my seven years as a columnist in my hometown. It didn't take a genius to see where Phoenix was heading. And, both to preserve my job and keep some alliances for the greater good, I pulled my punches way too often.

Sunday's story was headlined "Growth pattern crippled Phoenix." (Is it just me, or does the Republic usually use "Phoenix" in a headline about "bad" news, but "Valley" in every other reference to the metropolitan area?). It focuses on the disaster in the newest fringes of sprawl, but also calls into question the entire growth model. Or, as the story puts it, "Phoenix grew into the nation's fifth-largest city through a reliable
pattern: Build affordable homes on the metro area's edges, welcome
waves of new buyers, and then roads, schools and retail centers follow." It goes on:

One reason the current housing collapse has been so brutal in Phoenix
is how suddenly that pattern broke down. In only a couple of years, the
breakdown trapped people in unfinished communities much like a
fast-moving landslide buries people in their tracks.
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Posted inPhoenix

Dead town walking

Do even the most sober-minded Phoenicians realize how deep a hole they're in? The depression caused by the housing collapse is undeniable. So the answer is merely to reinflate the housing bubble and happy days are here again, right? More "master planned communities." More paving over Pinal and Yavapai counties and rolling over Wickenburg with lookalike tract houses. More boobs from the Midwest who will put up with anything as long as they don't have to shovel snow.

Indeed, a major effort will be made to craft the Obama stimulus to do just this. Sustainability has no powerful political base. Sprawl does. Even the nominally progressive radio talker Ed Schultz is pushing for a bailout of the house builders — and no wonder: he also owns a small construction company and drives 50 miles each way to work from his suburban home. With progressives like these, who can understand that the old sprawl model is hopelessly broken? Trying to revive it will only increase and lengthen the pain of transition — or leave the country too bankrupt to even get there. Reviving it in Arizona will only hasten the inevitable water emergency.

But Phoenix faces crises beyond the housing depression. As one of America's least literate and most poorly educated big cities — if it can even be called a city — it's not surprising that no one is talking about them. And even the "smart people" assume the growth machine will revive, simply because it always has. Call them the road kill of the Great Disruption, the new era of discontinuity.

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Posted inPhoenix

Did you hear the one about sustainable Phoenix?

This week's Phoenix Laff Riot comes from the Arizona Republic, in a story headlined "Striving to be Green:

The Valley is lashed in national surveys for its poor air quality,
derided for its urban sprawl and mocked for its searing temperatures
and growing heat island.

But, despite these challenges, city boosters, business owners,
environmentalists and academics all say Phoenix has a unique
opportunity to become truly sustainable. They also say the Valley could squander that opportunity if it fails
to make smart decisions now about growth, open spaces, wildlife and the
economy.

Later in the story is the kind of cliche sentence editors wouldn't allow, if only they weren't in endless meetings and trying to put together graphics and assorted crap: "But only time will tell if the Valley can pull it off."

I hate to break the news, but time has told and "the Valley" can't pull it off.

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Posted inUncategorized

Change? You can’t be serious

Let the excuses begin.

The New York Times leads off:

Just as the world seemed poised to combat global warming
more aggressively, the economic slump and plunging prices of coal and
oil are upending plans to wean businesses and consumers from fossil
fuel.

The Washington Post weighs in:

Many members of Congress believe they know what the car company of the future should look like. "A business model based on gas — a gas-guzzling past — is unacceptable," Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.)
said last week. "We need a business model based on cars of the future,
and we already know what that future is: the plug-in hybrid electric
car."

But the car company Schumer and other lawmakers envision
for the future could turn out to be a money-losing operation, not part
of a "sustainable U.S. auto industry" that President-elect Barack Obama and most members of Congress say they want to create.

That's
because car manufacturers still haven't figured out how to produce
hybrid and plug-in vehicles cheaply enough to make money on them.

Expect to hear more in the coming days and months. We will see a potentially debilitating alignment of old thinking and old, yet still politically powerful, economic interests. If it succeeds, the country will face much worse pain in the years ahead.

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Posted inPhoenix

Downtown Phoenix update, gentle and honest

The 31-story Sheraton opened in Phoenix this week, to the predictable cheerleading that it will "revive" downtown. I hate to sun on your parade, but my recent visit "home" showed that the central city is still facing mammoth challenges, and that, of course, bodes ill for the economic and social health of the region.

Let’s start with the good news, for we always have to be mindful of "the Valley’s" real-estate-promoter mindset and fragile ego. The thing looks less bad than many had feared; as it was going up an editorialist at the Republic memorably likened it to an overgrown motel by the Interstate. It is absolutely essential to the success of the Convention Center, a business where Phoenix should excel, rather than being an also-ran with Grand Rapids as it was before the expansion.

A modest mid-rise is going up, just north of the Valley Center tower (I use the old name because who knows who will own the bank tomorrow), and at least one at CityScape. Not sure if there are many tenants. ASU has added a couple of buildings and is expanding the nursing college. The Grace Court development is coming along. And light rail is in — light rail has succeeded virtually everywhere in America, so Phoenix will have to work really, really hard to screw it up.

Now, if you feel better you can stop reading now. Or read on for the unfortunate "rest of the story."

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Posted inPhoenix

The Gateway to fresh folly in Phoenix

Here we go again.

According to the East Valley Tribune, DMB Associates has made public the plans for its part of the old GM Proving Grounds near Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport. But wait,

Dense, urban spaces, narrow pedestrian pathways to a nearby coffee shop
or bookstore, a short drive to work. That’s the kind of urbanism
southeast Mesa can expect in the future, if things go as planned by the
developer of 3,200 acres of property.

My friend Grady Gammage, the land-use lawyer, adds: "We’re hoping to hit the sweet spot where we embrace the 21st-century dynamic nature with something significantly urban." But then comes the story’s money shot:

To embrace its moniker of "21st-century desert urbanism," DMB would
like a flexible framework to work with, one that develops as the market
dictates over the years. Under this new type of planned district, which Mesa approved last
September, a developer gets to create a zoning ordinance for a property
and is able to get some flexibility in future development.

What’s wrong with this? Almost everything.

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Posted inUncategorized

Oil prices falling — will IQs follow?

Gasoline at $5, $6, $10 a gallon over the next two years would have been a severe mercy for the United States. It would have forced changes that will eventually be essential: more transit and rail passenger service, a return to our core cities, an urgency to raise fuel economy standards and develop alternatives. At last suburban and exurban living would be properly priced and costly, and the enterprise to retrofit savable suburbia to transit could begin. Foot-dragging on reducing greenhouse gases would have been similarly eliminated.

I don’t think it will go down that way. Oil prices have been dropping in recent days, as I long predicted they would. The decline is because the nation that uses a quarter of the world’s petroleum is seen heading into a nasty recession, which will cut world demand. So prices will drop, and soon we can expect some to start saying the worst is over and we can get back to driving SUVs and other self-destructive behavior.

(I think of a story in today’s Arizona Republic about Lake Powell "recovering," and the ‘Zonies thinking "happy days are here again!" even though their water crisis is unabated — although a State Secret).

Yet the fundamentals haven’t changed. World oil production has either reached peak or will do so in a few years. That means half of this one-time resource will have been extracted and burned off — and it was the easy half, the cheap half. So the remainder will be more costly, and getting it will be more geopolitically destabilizing. So oil will fall a little, then rise more the next time; retreat a bit again and resume its upward climb. The major oil companies and oil exporting nations (which control most of the oil) know this. Most Americans still don’t.

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Posted inPhoenix

Phoenix broiling: Apocalypse now, or later

The Republic devoted a magisterial nine sentences today to the fact that Phoenix is on track to meet or exceed last year’s record 32 days of 110 degrees or above.

Not that anybody living there now cares, but as late as the 1960s, the Salt River Valley had hard frosts in the winter (thus, far fewer mosquitoes, no West Nile virus). We went back to school in September, in un-air conditioned classrooms, because it was cooling down enough to open the windows. Night-time cooling in summer was significant, and the summers were not as hot, nor did they last as long, as now. The idea of more than a month of 110-and-above would have seemed frighteningly absurd.

Contrary to the mantra of "it’s a desert, shut up about the heat!," these man-made changes in the Phoenix weather are a Big Deal. So far, they are mostly a local event, caused by the massive loss of agriculture and gargantuan increase in paved sprawl. Global warming’s consequences haven’t really started to kick in.

What happens then?

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Posted inPhoenix

Sustaining denial as the old world collapses

The Arizona Republic spent a week writing articles about "sustainability." This was obviously Gannett top-down: the series was relentlessly "positive," aimed at "the average reader" and ultimately useless. Which is too bad, because reporter Shaun McKinnon is as close to an expert on water issues as you’ll find at major newspapers — when he’s allowed to write on them.

This was followed, equally predictably, by the kind of anodyne editorial the Republic has written hundreds of times before. This one had such deep renderings as:

Sustainability: The word is everywhere. Companies from Wal-Mart to Ford
are trumpeting their commitment to it. There are indexes to measure it,
including a Dow Jones corporate yardstick. Bloggers have seized on it.

And, after gently laying out some challenges, then offering soothing praise for the state:

But more needs to happen on the ground. While Gov. Janet Napolitano,
Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon and other leaders have certainly supported
sustainability, Arizona still seems in the minor leagues. The efforts
need to be bigger, better, faster.

"Seems"? Here’s what was not covered, as far as I can tell:

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