The Republic devoted a magisterial nine sentences today to the fact that Phoenix is on track to meet or exceed last year’s record 32 days of 110 degrees or above.
Not that anybody living there now cares, but as late as the 1960s, the Salt River Valley had hard frosts in the winter (thus, far fewer mosquitoes, no West Nile virus). We went back to school in September, in un-air conditioned classrooms, because it was cooling down enough to open the windows. Night-time cooling in summer was significant, and the summers were not as hot, nor did they last as long, as now. The idea of more than a month of 110-and-above would have seemed frighteningly absurd.
Contrary to the mantra of "it’s a desert, shut up about the heat!," these man-made changes in the Phoenix weather are a Big Deal. So far, they are mostly a local event, caused by the massive loss of agriculture and gargantuan increase in paved sprawl. Global warming’s consequences haven’t really started to kick in.
What happens then?
What do steadily rising temperatures and longer summers mean for: power use in a time of rapidly rising energy costs; stress on the power grid; canal evaporation; the priceless Sonoran Desert ecosystem; pollution; people at risk; quality of life; the ability to recruit and retain talent? What do they mean in terms of danger to the safety of the "fifth largest city in America"?
The local bigs have no answer. They are away at their cool summer places, waiting for the real-estate depression to end. Then, they expect things to continue as before: huge population influx from the Midwest; build more "master planned communities. Whatever nice ideas the impotent planners put out, the real decision-makers have only one template: build more of North Scottsdale, Chandler and Gilbert. Everywhere. Buckeye. Maricopa. Coolidge. Casa Grande. Wickenburg. One of the biggest enterprises is suburbanizing the vast tract of state trust land south and east of Mesa, and doing it along the exact lines as the sprawl built since 1955. Meanwhile, the shade islands are in jeopardy and non "natural," heat-radiating gravel proliferates (the real Sonoran Desert, a relatively wet,lush and cool desert in its natural state, is unique; that’s why it’s not the Mojave, Chihuahua or Sahara desert, yet).
A resumption of the population growth of the 1990s and early 2000s is questionable. It also won’t last forever, particularly when average people without summer escapes are confronted with one, two and three months of 110 and above. This puts the economy at huge risk considering most of it is based on this simple Ponzi scheme proposition: the boobs from the cold Midwest will keep moving here no matter what.
But if the old order resumes and gets its coveted 8 million people in central Arizona, then what? No magical cool paving is going to fix this. (The sidewalk temp. is about 140, when it’s even 105 or above). Can metro Phoenix even sustain 4 million under these conditions long term?
Phoenix is incredibly vulnerable to any interruption of electricity, water, fuel or everything that must be trucked in or brought by rail. Yet much of its infrastructure is decades old and built for a much smaller city. Phoenix is isolated, with few ways in or out and lacking even Amtrak service. Old Phoenix, say up to 1965, had the hydro projects — started with that socialist Theodore Roosevelt — to sustain itself. It grew much of its own food. Most of us could get by with evaporative cooling. Those days are gone.
Because denial continues, one must ask…how will it go down?
Will Phoenix collapse in one big New Orleans-like catastrophe, where the power grid fails for days or weeks in high summer, provoking widespread death, civil insurrection in, say, Maryvale or maybe among the aggrieved Ahwatukians, vigilante responses, and a "highway of death" stampede out of town?
Will it just slowly fade like so many cities that have lost their moment, exceeded their carrying capacity, failed to reinvent themselves, or stuck with an outmoded economic premise? Amid this fading will be mini-crises, of course, with a hint of worse to come.
Two things seem clear. Phoenix and Arizona leaders are resolute in refusing to use the current economic collapse as a time to take stock. Take stock not only of the economy, but of all the ways the city and state are living dangerously, and make different choices. And that the Phoenix that might have been sustained has been lost forever — but those of us who care already knew that, in our anger, in our tears.
“Will Phoenix collapse in one big New Orleans-like catastrophe…?
“Will it just slowly fade like so many cities that have lost their moment…?”
FWIW, my take is that there will be a slow fade of residents who still have the resources to get out of Dodge as the calamity dawns upon them. Left behind will be the rest, with nowhere to go and well-entertained anyway by the teevee until it’s too late.
So it may be slower than the horrific collapse of New Orleans, but the fall will proceed, Katrina-like, with the same cast of players executing their roles.
If I am seeing things clearly here.
Or maybe I’m just engaged in a perverse intellectual projection, just so I can savor the irony of having the wettest and the driest of cities teach the same lessons.
As much as I’ve loved this city, I am eyeing the door these days myself, and that breaks my heart.
There could be pseudo-Katrina shocks at different levels of gas prices. At $10 gas, you’ll see ~300,000 Phoenicians mail their keys to the bank and walk away. Not just from their homes, but from the state.
No doubt, some of the costs of living in Phoenix will rise. Transport, electricity, maybe water in the longer term. And why would anyone put up with this? For the joys of living in a red-tiled roof sea of asphalt, gravel and angry HOA hall monitors? Working at Wal-Mart? (the state’s top employer) Unless Phoenix miraculously attracts and grows major high quality industries, there will be no reason to endure here. Even then, a mass abandonment of the exurbs is likely.
I’d say Phoenix has about 5-10 years left to pass major reforms and simultaneously get a bit of luck on the employer front or it’s toast. It’ll make Detroit look like Paris.
That was a depressing read. How long can I lay in the fetal position before they call the crazy police on me?
We know that in recent years summer heat waves have killed the elderly in Chicago and Europe. We know electrical grid failures can occur and have widespread impact, as happened in New York. Putting such scenarios together makes is plausible that poor oversight could permit such a tragedy in Arizona. However, even if such horrible things were to occur, it doesn’t seem like that alone would cause the type of mass-migration that occurred due to Katrina in New Orleans. Mass-migrations tend to follow highly disruptive events, such as wars and natural catastrophes. Getting hotter is a slow-moving event. People know it keeps getting hotter, but they just adjust to it being hotter or they move away when it seems most appropriate.
More likely Phoenix’s downfall will be similar to rust belt cities. The young will move away in search of better opportunities elsewhere. The old will be trapped by the lack of time available to start anew elsewhere.
I also don’t envision Phoenix entirely disappearing either. Many cities in existences today were once in the “top 5”. Cities such as St. Louis and Houston were once touted as the next best alternatives to New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles.
Without significant reinvention, Phoenix will likely fade into a mid-tier status as someplace else takes the lead as the next great place to migrate toward.
For the depressed:
https://.typepad.com/rogue_columnist/2008/07/phoenix-and-ari.html
The Phoenix economic model is also known as the path of least resistance. Build lots of single family houses serviced by wide roads and Big Box retail. You can’t even call it stupid since the market was the one determining it. And what’s wrong with being fat, dumb and happy?
We’re finding out now. The longer we deny, the harder we fall. On one level, there will be an element of poetic justice. The “free-market” types who defend this arrangement are certain global warming is a canard of pointy-headed scientists. But they won’t be the ones paying the price in any case. I imagine Elliot Pollack has some nice vacation digs in Vail or La Jolla.
The dominant paradigm exercises tyranny over our thoughts and lives. We can no more think outside that box than imagine how life will continue in a place of worsening droughts. The wingnut strategy of calling climate change “natural” is the kind of coping mechanism drug addicts know and practice.
One demurral: Phoenix’s winters can still be surprisingly cold. In January 2007, there was a hard frost here that nearly killed my ficus trees. This last winter was also quite cold. Global warming doesn’t mean everything gets warm. It means the atmosphere and oceans get warmer and thereby alters fundamental weather patterns. What that means for us is that weather is more volatile. Yes, summers will get hotter, but winters might get colder. Poor Phoenix.
Our leaders are too busy debating over the size of the flat screens at Phoenix Country Club. It would be comical if so many people weren’t putting their faith in these people to make decisions in the public’s best interest.
https://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/2008/08/01/20080801countryclub0801.html
One of the worst signs is that they haven’t even learned anything from their own past. The floods of 1977 and 1979 isolated the city from everywhere else and some of the suburbs from each other. The dependency on outside resources and delivery modes were evident to all, even though it was only the 11th largest city at the time. It seems the only thing anyone did anything about was to improve some of the below-grade river and wash crossings and bridges.
If that real crisis didn’t cause real change (or even long-term planning), there is little hope that anything else will until another real crisis happens. In my view of history, the oft-touted American reponse to emergencies is really an isolationist denial until that can no longer be sustained. Only then do we jump in and whole-heartedly pull together to stop the crisis.
For an example in your new home, Jon, look into the history of Lake Washington in the 1940’s and 50’s. A classic of denying the problem of pollution until a heroic response was all that remained and then taking credit for the heroic response.