The Monday stack is rich, so let’s get right to it.
We’re hearing a lot of talk about seeing lights at the end of the tunnel, that the downturn is over or the recession will be mild…whatever. I hope so. But here are a few things to keep in mind. First, recovering from the collapse of a real-estate bubble takes much more time than the recovery we saw from the tech bubble after ’01. Japan in the 1980s and 1990s is Exhibit A.
Second, America has many "economies." So Wall Street and the globalized macro economy measured by the Dow and the GDP may well "recover." Another economy involves good jobs and diverse opportunities outside of the minority of fortunate cities such as New York, San Francisco and Seattle. I see no signs of that economy turning around. Indeed, by many measures it slips a little further back during and after the end of each business cycle. Jobless recoveries are only one aspect of this troubling trend. Throughout the boom of the past few years, most wages stagnated and many actually lost ground. So hold the celebration.
Read on for more of the Stack
Some Phoenix news:
–As part of a developer’s plan to "save" the Luhrs Building and Luhrs Tower in downtown Phoenix, the 1914 Luhrs Central building will be torn down. We’re told this is to make way for a future hotel, but I’m suspicious that will happen anytime before global warming and a water crisis causes the mass depopulation of the metro area. What we lose is a two-story building right on the sidewalk facing Central Avenue. In a healthy city, this would be chock-a-block with small businesses. As far as I can tell, it’s been mostly vacant for years. Small businesses in affordable, interesting older buildings right on the sidewalk are part of the architectural, commercial and human pleasure of a downtown.
When I see the renderings of the nearby CityScape, I see a suburban office complex with skyscrapers and an inward-focused, blazing hot plaza. (And I am very skeptical about even the first very modest phase of this project given the credit environment; earth to Republic, gonna ask that question?). Similarly, the Orpheum Theater was "saved" but not its surrounding streetscape. Same with the dull garage "saved" north of the transit center — striped of its street of commercial buildings, it’s meaningless and doesn’t give the dense, street-level appeal of a city. So I dread seeing the Luhrs skyscrapers sitting alone surrounded by nothing. And, in all these projects, where are the shade trees?
–Reports that United Airlines is negotiating with US Airways are not surprising. The airline industry is out of ideas, and what this country needs is a balanced transportation system including intercity rail and bullet trains as in other advanced nations. It will be one of the last major headquarters to leave metro Phoenix. It wasn’t much compared with the old Dial, but it still provided good jobs and was a center of decision-making in the economy. Phoenix’s stealth depression — not reported on by the news media — will only get worse. The government should say to the airlines: If you can’t survive except by merging, shut down, liquidate. Somehow I think they would find a new way to survive. These mergers always fail, reduce competition, create worse customer service and produce new, bigger basket cases. Why do they happen? Aside from a complicit government, they enrich the people whose paychecks are linked to producing mergers: CEOs, investment bankers and lawyers.
–I laugh/cried at the story about Biltmore Fashion Park trying to trick itself out by adding "eateries" and "prominent signage." The Biltmore was once one of the most distinct and pleasant shopping centers in the West, with its grassy courts, shade trees, mountain views and shops facing outward along a shaded sidewalk right in front. This was all destroyed in a ghastly remake a few years ago. Now, like every other dreary retail center in over-stored metro Phoenix, it faces inward and has bleak, hot walls and concrete everywhere. The views and nearby citrus groves were long ago obliterated. It is also rubbing up against the expanding barrio as Phoenix continues the astounding growth of a poor immigrant class cut off from the mainstream (but propping up the state’s low wage economy). So sad. The Biltmore was one of many lost treasures of Phoenix.
–Finally, unsurprising news that the "get tough" legislation against hiring illegal aliens has not snagged one single employer. This was always more about ginning up anti-immigrant passions to help the right-wing thugs in Arizona politics than actually doing something about illegal immigration. Since the Legislature’s "base" is the real estate industry and low-end, bottom-feeder, low-wage businesses of Arizona, did anyone really think the law would be implemented against these employers? There’s not a little racism and warfare against the poor here (values voters!). Meanwhile, a complex issue remains unattended, as the costs from the underclass grow. Nicely done!
Biltmore Fashion Park used to be great. I loved going there. It was upscale and drew the Biltmore-area residents as well as those living in Paradise Valley, Arcadia and in the big homes on North Central. There was a large grassy expanse looking up towards Squaw Peak and the entire shopping center had an open, relaxed yet very fashionable sense to it. Gone. Long gone.
Jon, the entire 24th St and Camelback area is puzzling to me. Across the street from the Fashion Plaza are new high-rises with glass towers, a beautiful hotel, a nice Houstons restaurant. But just east are all of these empty single- and two-level commercial buildings. And to the west, the slow but inevitable deteriation of block after block after block. That used to be a very classy part of Phoenix and popular with the restaurant/club crowd in the days of Reubens and Victoria Station and a hopping little place called Bogarts. (I know, I’m really dating myself with these recollections.) Now everything in that neighborhood seems sad and spiraling down or is built as a bulwark against the relentless encroachment of the lower economic classes.
You really hit the nail on the head when you write about “The Valley” having a dramatically two-tiered population base. The affluent are migrating towards enclaves in the northeast. Everywhere else in the metro area, and I mean EVERYWHERE, is sinking into a state of pathetic, non-reparable hopelessness. It’s really turned into an ungodly place. I suppose if you’re in your 20s or 30s and fully into the “fun-in-the-sun” lifestyle then it can’t be beat. But for the rest of us….
Totally agree on the sad state of the look of the city. Biltmore is truly a tragic loss — now just looks like the crap out in Peoria. Used to be shady and unique.