Positive trend lines
One of my great former teachers posted on Facebook: "Coronado is closing at the end of this semester. Rumor has it that the Salt River Indian community plans to purchase it and turn it into a casino. The stadium will host concerts, and the gym will become a gourmet restaurant." I was pretty sure the Indian part was a jape, but the first sentence chilled me to the bone. He got me with an April Fool's joke — but given the conditions in Arizona, can you blame me for being taken in? Coronado has already been allowed to decline from one of America's best high schools to one stressed by a working poor student population. Meanwhile, a reader writes, "given your thorough knowledge of our situation down here what, if anything, do you see as positive trend lines or unique strengths for Phoenix metro and the state of Arizona? I know you have written blog entries about the constructive things you would do if you 'were king of the forest,' but I am wondering more about some general comments about what you think are the long-term positives about living here? If any." In further correspondence, I asked him if he wanted me to leave out pie-in-the-sky stuff such as train service between Phoenix and Tucson. Yes. So I'll try to take up the challenge.
1. Climate. A significant number of people will put up with all manner of dystopia for hot weather and sunny days. No matter that the summers are hotter and last longer, that some years Phoenix suffers through nearly seven hot months (100 degrees on April 1st, no joke) — these folks like it. Thus, even though the migratory patterns that built modern Phoenix now face considerable question marks, the heat-seekers will still come. To the extent that population growth and a sizable population are positives, this trend can be counted on, until climate change and costly energy make the place largely unbearable. Even though the sweet season is shorter and shorter, it produces wonderful weather for tourists, snowbirds and part-year residents who aren't put off by extremist politics. This, too, will continue.
2. Sky Harbor. One of the nation's largest airports is a major economic engine, working symbiotically with the tourism industry. If it remains a hub for USAirways or a successor in a merger, as well as Southwest Airlines' busiest station (Southwest doesn't use hubs), this will keep PHX strong. With its own revenue stream and largely protected from the Kookocracy, the airport has the means to do some forward-looking projects such as the air train now under construction.
3. The affluent fringes. In my world, places such as Gilbert, Chandler, Goodyear, Glendale, Surprise and Peoria are mostly negatives. Still, they hold a growing number, probably even a majority, of the metropolitan area's residents with decent jobs or good retirement packages. They are still highly desirable to the sprawl building sector. They have well-funded schools, few poor minorities and new (car-based) infrastructure. And Chandler actually has an economy, with Intel. If this is your thing, these areas offer a very pleasant suburban lifestyle and will continue to hold up and grow. They will also continue to attract some capital investment even in a slow recovery. The potent LDS contingent will continue to add its wealth, cohesion and political clout, especially in the East Valley.